Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Lucas Giolito and Paul Blackburn/Christian Javier with Dodgers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Braves, Royals, Yankees, and Pirates. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell, and Justin Verlander.
- Bailey Ober rates as the top pitcher in the models at low ownership. Ober makes a strong GPP pivot off of heavily owned Blake Snell. Yusei Kikuchi and Grayson Rodriguez rate as the best of the rest. After Rodriguez, a large group of pitchers rate similarly so it makes sense to prioritize point-per-dollar value and ownership.
- The Mets rate as the top stack in the models by a decent margin and will be low-owned. The Nationals, Braves, A's, Royals, Pirates, and Red Sox rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Bailey Ober, Mike Clevinger, Yusei Kikuchi
Ober at the top of True AVG and median projection looks like a strong play in GPPs if you're fading Blake Snell. Similarly, Kikuchi looks like a strong pivot off of Giolito. Lastly, Mike Clevinger is a solid punt pivot off Grayson Rodriguez if GRod ends up getting steamed.
Zeros: Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Rodon, Bryce Elder
Thor is a shell of his former self and is more static electricity than the god of thunder. Not only is his True AVG in the toilet but he greatly inflates the stolen base upside of opposing offenses. Rodon is coming off of the IL and may be popular, both of which scream fade. Bryce Elder is not good, but plays on a good team which leads people to conflate team talent with pitcher talent. Elder can be attacked with low-owned Mets.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Lucas Gioliti
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Ji Hwan Bae
3B: Maikel Garcia
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Michael Harris II
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Bailey Ober
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Lenyn Sosa
3B: Jonathan Arauz
SS: Corey Seager
OF: Jorge Soler
DFS Stack Considerations
Mets
Nationals
Braves
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Grayson Rodriguez and the Mets makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (WAS, OAK, BOS). In large-field, the models support fading chalk Rodon/Snell/Giolito as well as the Dodgers. In addition to the top stacks, the A's, Royals, and Pirates all look good. Additionally, the Red Sox and Marlins can be considered for large-field leverage stacks. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Giolito paired with Snell. However, one or both of them can be faded in GPPs in favor of Kikuchi and Ober respectively.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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