Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Reid Detmers with Dodgers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Mets. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Charlie Morton, Luis Severino, and Kevin Gausman.
- Clayton Kershaw rates as the top pitcher, however, he will have ownership and has an awful True AVG. It's worth noting that not a single pitcher projects for over 15 fantasy points on DK, so it makes a ton of sense to just focus on value and ownership to guide your decisions tonight. Kevin Gausman and Luis Severino rate as the best of the rest.
- The Yankees rate as the top stack in the models by a decent margin but will carry some ownership. The Braves, Astros, Red Sox, and Mets rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Dean Kremer, Xzavion Curry, Luis Severino
This list of heroes leaves a lot to be desired. Severino will be popular but that “might” actually be warranted. Meanwhile, Kremer and Curry are strong leverage options for large-field GPPs. Pitching is a bit of a mess tonight for DFS purposes so take everything with a grain of salt.
Zeros: Clayton Kershaw, MacKenzie Gore, Jose Urquidy
Kershaw again finds himself at the bottom of True AVG. However, this is still a first-ballot HOFer so even with that in mind it's unlikely he gets truly blown up but he also is unlikely to kill you if you fade him. Yankees versus Gore seems like the clear play, but the Yankees have also been pretty awful this season. Lastly, the Red Sox ownership might also be warranted versus Urquidy as the Astro's pitching continues to get exposed as the frauds they are.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Luis Severino
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Jeff McNeil
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Luis Rengifo
OF: Aaron Judge
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Dean Kremer
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Jose Altuve
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Orlando Arcia
OF: Chas McCormick
DFS Stack Considerations
Yankees
Braves
Astros
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Severino and the Yankees makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (HOU, ATL, BAL). In large-field, the models support fading chalk pitching (Kershaw/Gausman/Severino/Morton) when you consider their projection with ownership. You can also consider fading the Dodgers and Blue Jays as well. In addition to the top stacks, the Red Sox, Mets, and Orioles all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Detmers paired with Gausman/Kershaw/Morton on the high end, or with Severino in punt builds.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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