Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Merrill Kelly with White Sox bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Cubs, A's, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Pablo Lopez, Justin Steele, Jose Berrios, and Andrew Heaney.
- Justin Steele rates as the top pitcher. While Steele will be popular, his ownership shouldn't be prohibitive in GPPs. Jose Berrios, Andrew Heaney, Pablo Lopez, and Merrill Kelly rate as the best of the rest.
- The Diamondbacks rate as the top stack in the models by a country mile. The options on a 5-game slate are rough, but the Reds, A's, and White Sox rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Andrew Heaney, Jose Berrios, Merrill Kelly
Heaney sits atop True AVG tonight and has a decent median projection at low ownership. However, he's unlikely to see extended action and it wouldn't be surprising to see him capped around 85 pitches. Berrios and Kelly are the next two heroes but also represent two of the highest-owned pitchers on the slate. That said, it might be worth just eating the chalk.
Zeros: Andre Jackson, Brandon Williamson, Kyle Gibson
Surprisingly, the Cubs don't rate as well as you'd expect considering the matchup with Jackson. However, they are a solid high-upside option for DFS tonight. The Diamondbacks look great versus Williamson, as do the Blue Jays versus Gibson.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Justin Steele
1B: Andrew Vaughn
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: Tim Anderson
OF: Andrew Benintendi
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Andrew Heaney
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Ji Hwan Bae
3B: Spencer Steer
SS: Nick Ahmed
OF: Corbin Carroll
DFS Stack Considerations
Diamondbacks
White Sox
Blue Jays
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Steele and the White Sox makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (ARI, TOR, CIN). In large-field, the models support fading Pablo Lopez as well as Cubs/A's. In addition to the top stacks, the Reds, Cubs, Rangers, and A's are all viable. However, all of them grade out as average at best. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Merrill Kelly paired with Pablo Lopez. This pairing will be used with cheap White Sox stacks so avoid that combination in GPPs.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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