Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Spencer Strider with Dodgers bats and a punt SP2. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Orioles, White Sox, and Diamondbacks. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Brandon Pfaadt and Cole Irvin.
- Cole Irvin rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will be a popular value play. Strider, Pfaadt, and Dylan Cease rate as the best of the rest. Given that the chalk pitching also rates well, it will be important to identify low-owned high upside stacks tonight.
- The Mets rate as the top stack and currently project to have very little ownership. The Orioles, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mariners rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Spencer Strider, Chris Bassitt, Dylan Cease
You shouldn't need convincing at this point that Strider is always in play for DFS. However, he come at a very high price, high ownership, and a middling projection. Dylan Cease look like a strong option to mix into your player pool tonight. Cease offers both a price and ownership discount off of Strider without sacrificing much median projection. Despite having a top 3 True AVG, Bassitt has a poor median projection and can probably be ignored outside of large field multi-entry GPPs.
Zeros: Brandon Woodruff, Bryce Miller, Kyle Hendricks
Surprisingly, the Royals don't rate as well as you'd expect considering the matchup with Bryce Miller and his poor True AVG. However, the Padres and Pirates look like solid low-owned GPP stacks versus Woodruff and Hendricks respectively.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Cole Irvin
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
2B: Tommy Edman
3B: Jordan Westburg
SS: Tim Anderson
OF: Tyler O'Neil
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Dylan Cease
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Jeff McNeil
3B: Jace Peterson
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Juan Soto
DFS Stack Considerations
Mets
Orioles
Diamondbacks
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Irvin and the Orioles makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (NYM, BOS, PHI). In large-field, the models support lowering exposure to Spencer Strider as well as Dodgers/White Sox. In addition to the top stacks, the Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Cardinals, and Pirates all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Spencer Strider paired with one of Pfaadt/Irvin. However, it's worthwhile to take some saving by dropping down from Strider and paying up for different stacks.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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