Posted on Leave a comment

Paydirt MLB DFS Triple Play 08.28.2023

PayDirt MLB Image

Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Grayson Rodriguez with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Padres and Mariners. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Kevin Gausman, Bryan Woo, and Kyle Harrison.
  • Kevin Gausman rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will be a popular. Similarly, Kyle Harrison and Grayson Rodriguez rate well but will be highly owned. Chris Sale rounds out the best of the rest and will be very low-owned. Chris Sale makes an intriguing GPP pivot off of Gausman, but in general, the chalk pitching options all look good.
  • The Red Sox rate as the top stack and project to have very little ownership. The Twins, Cubs, Guardians, Blue Jays, and Orioles rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

True AVG Heroes and Zeros

Heroes: Kevin Gausman, Jameson Taillon, Chris Sale
Kevin Gausman has the highest True AVG and highest median projection tonight likely warranting the ownership. However, Chris Sale can be considered in place of Gausman to save some salary for bats. Despite the strong True AVG, Taillon projects poorly. That said, Taillon can still be considered in large-field GPPs as a pivot to similar punt option Kyle Harrison. 

Zeros: Wade Miley, Bryce Elder, Kyle Muller
Wade Miley rates like garbage and yet nobody is playing the Cubs. The Cubs just helped take down the Fanduel live final and could be in a similar high-upside spot tonight. Elder continues to get a boost due to the Braves overall being good, but he is not. Taking the other side of Coors and playing Rockies is certainly in play. Lastly, Muller is bad but people have been attacking Oakland pitching most of the season and tonight is no different as the Mariners project to be popular in DFS.

If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!

MLB Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

SP: Grayson Rodriguez
1B: Rowdy Tellez
2B: Jose Caballero
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Gabriel Arias
OF: Juan Soto

MLB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

SP: Chris Sale
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Brice Turang
3B: Nick Madrigal
SS: Dylan Moore
OF: Nick Senzel

DFS Stack Considerations

Red Sox
Twins
Cubs

MLB DFS Final Thoughts

Starting with Rodriguez and the Red Sox makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (MIN, CHC, CLE). In large-field, the models support fading Bryan Woo as well as lowering exposure to Braves. In addition to the top stacks, the Guardians, Blue Jays, Orioles, Braves, and Mariners all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Grayson Rodriguez paired with Gausman on the high-end, or one of Harrison/Woo on the low-end. However, Sale and Taillon can be considered as pivots to Gausman and Harrison respectively. 

GL and let's bake some bread!


Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Leave a Reply