Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of George Kirby with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Mariners, Royals, and Rockies. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Alex Cobb, Cole Ragans, and Charlie Morton.
- Jose Berrios rates as the top pitcher in the models and will be about half the ownership as similarly priced Charlie Morton. Cole Ragans, George Kirby, and Andrew Heaney round out the best of the rest. The general theme in DFS tonight is to save money at pitcher and pay up for premium bats.
- The Blue Jays rate as the top stack and project to have very little ownership. The Red Sox, Astros, Braves, Mariners, and Twins rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Cole Ragans, Charlie Morton, George Kirby
Cole Ragans seems like a smash play at SP2 considering his high True AVG, median projection, and cheap price. Morton and Kirby aren't necessarily great values tonight at their prices, but they do still rate well and are firmly in play. However, taking their ownership into account, fading either Morton or Kirby is viable in GPPs.
Zeros: Jesse Scholtens, Corbin Burnes, MacKenzie Gore
Scholtens is a dumpster fire on the mound and the Orioles can be played with confidence tonight. Corbin Burnes has name value but has been vulnerable this season and the Cubs will have no ownership. Lastly, Gore and his poor True AVG is boosting TOR to the top of the stack projections.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Cole Ragans
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
2B: Jose Caballero
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Dylan Moore
OF: Ronald Acuna
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Jose Berrios
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Orlando Arcia
OF: Davis Schneider
DFS Stack Considerations
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Astros
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Ragans and the Braves makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (TOR, BOS, MIN). In large-field, the models support fading Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton as well as Royals bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Braves, Mariners, Twins, Diamondbacks, and Guardians all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is George Kirby paired with Morton on the high-end, or one of Cobb/Ragans on the low-end.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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