Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Gerrit Cole with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Yankees and Pirates. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Jesus Luzardo, Denyi Reyes, Andre Jackson, and Zach Eflin.
- Zach Eflin rates as the top pitcher in the models and is the only one with a median projection above 20 DK points. Gerrit Cole and Jesus Luzardo round out the best of the rest, however, both of them are pretty poor point-per-dollar plays.
- The Dodgers rate as the top stack and come with a considerable ownership discount off of the Braves. The Braves, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Diamondbacks rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Ryan Pepiot, Zach Eflin, Joey Wentz
Pepiot just got recalled from Triple-A and there is some question as to what his workload will be tonight. Similar concerns can be said about Wentz who is listed as the probable long reliever. Eflin looks like the safest Hero tonight with strong True AVG and the highest median projection.
Zeros: Dane Dunning, Brandon Pfaadt, Kyle Freeland
Dane Dunning is dung and the Mets are a strong option in GPPs at low ownership. Pfaadt is in a matchup with the red-hot Dodgers who rate as the top stack in DFS tonight. Lastly, Freeland is awful and in Coors, but that's just leading to massive ownership on Braves hitters.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Andre Jackson (Eflin on FD)
1B: DJ LeMahieu
2B: Gleyber Torres
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Alika Williams
OF: Connor Joe
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Zach Eflin
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Max Muncy
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Mookie Betts
DFS Stack Considerations
Dodgers
Braves
Yankees
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Eflin and the Yankees makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (LAD, NYM, TEX). In large-field, the models support fading Gerrit Cole and Jesus Luzardo as well as Pirates bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Mets, Rangers, and Diamondbacks all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Gerrit Cole paired with Eflin/Luzardo on the high-end, or Andre Jackson on the low-end.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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