Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Max Scherzer with Toronto bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Red Sox, Marlins, and Rockies. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on James Paxton and JP Sears.
- Joe Ryan rates as the top pitcher in the models and will have very little ownership. Zach Wheeler, Hyu Jin Ryu, and Eury Perez round out the best of the rest. There are several pivots in this group, including Ryu (JP Sears) and Wheeler (Max Scherzer). Additionally, for the roughly the same amount of salary as Max/Paxton you can go with Ryan/Perez.
- The Astros rate as the top stack in the models currently. The Guardians, Yankees, Pirates, Braves, and Phillies rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Joe Ryan
Justin Verlander can be taken with a grain of salt. Despite having the top True AVG he has a poor median projection and is a poor value tonight. Kodai Senga is in pretty much the same situation as Verlander. Both pitchers can be considered in MME builds, but avoided in SE/3-max. Joe Ryan boasts a strong True AVG and the top median projection in DFS making him a strong play in all formats.
Zeros: Chris Flexen, Dakota Hudson, Jordan Lyles
Chris Flexen is awful and pitching in Coors but everyone knows it and the Blue Jays will be incredibly high-owned. Likewise, the Red Sox look like they will be popular tonight versus Jordan Lyles. This leaves the Pirates against Dakota Hudson looking like the preferred GPP stack at low-ownership.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: James Paxton
1B: Brandon Belt
2B: Jose Altuve
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Joey Wendle
OF: Daulton Varsho
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Joe Ryan
1B: DJ LeMahieu
2B: Ji Hwan Bae
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Anthony Volpe
OF: Giancarlo Stanton
DFS Stack Considerations
Astros
Guardians
Yankees
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Ryan and the Blue Jays makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (CLE, NYY, PIT). In large-field, the models support fading Max Scherzer and Red Sox bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Pirates, Braves, Phillies, Twins, and Blue Jays all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Max Scherzer paired with one of Paxton/Sears. However, the models support pivoting off of Max/Sears for Wheeler/Ryu respectively.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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