Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Caris LeVert absolutely crushed in his last game without Darius Garland. Garland is doubtful for tonight’s game versus the Bulls so LeVert will be a strong play once again. Most DFS players are aware of this, however, which is making Levert one of the highest owned players on the slate. At a normally weak SG position and a cheap price it’s a scary fade.
- Saddiq Bey (DK) and Kyle Anderson (FD). We have some site specific value plays tonight due to the pricing and salary cap differences between the sites. Both are value forwards that are projected to play solid minutes and have high 5x%. While Bey likely has the higher ceiling, Anderson has the safer floor.
- Kevon Looney is projected to be highly owned due to multiple injuries in the Warriors frontcourt. Additionally, he gets a strong matchup versus the Hawks and thankfully the Warriors are home tonight as they have some outrageous home/road splits. The main issue with Looney is just his lack of ceiling. He’s a highly owned “safe” play that can be used to balance contrarian builds, but if you’re playing other chalk pieces he’s a good fade candidate.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Luka Doncic
Caris LeVert
Saddiq Bey
Kyle Anderson
Kevon Looney
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Trae Young, LaMelo Ball (Lillard on FD), Jaden Ivey
SG: James Harden, Zach LaVine, Alec Burks
SF: Lebron James, Paul George, Patrick Williams
PF: Kevin Durant, Zion Williamson, Jeremy Sochan
C: Bam Adebayo, Christian Wood, Mason Plumlee
Popular DFS Play: Caris LeVert
Price: $4,800/$6,200
Own%: 70.00%/46.53%
DFS Value Play: Saddiq Bey (DK)/Kyle Anderson (FD)
Price: $4,300/$5,800 $5,200/$5,300
5x%: 62.00%/21.10% 39.40%/50.8%
Player to avoid in DFS: Kevon Looney
Price: $4,600/$5,200
LevX: -29.37/-46.90
NBA DFS final thoughts
With a lot of perceived value on the slate tonight it is shaping up to be a classic stars and scrubs construction. As usual, this presents DFS players with 3 options in GPPs: play low owned stars, pivot off of the chalk scrubs, or go with the opposite build (balanced tonight). Just be mindful of the size of the contests you’re in so you don’t over-leverage yourself. Good luck as always!
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