Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Kelly Olynyk should see 30 minutes of action tonight with maybe a couple more. With an average of 0.93 FPPM this makes Kelly O a solid value at his current price. Additionally, Olynyk gets a great matchup versus the Kings. Due to all of this he’ll be a popular play on both DFS sites tonight.
- Al Horford is somewhat dependent on Robert Williams’ availability but is a phenomenal target if Williams is out. Even if Williams is in, Horford is cheap enough that he can still return value in a matchup versus the lottery-bound Thunder.
- Malik Beasley is cheap and has a good matchup versus the Kings, but that’s about where it ends. He’s a chalk, scoring-dependent player on a fully healthy team. Additionally, there are a multitude of lower-owned players in his price range with similar median projections. Beasley is a pretty easy fade in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jordan Clarkson
Marcus Smart
Malik Beasley
Kelly Olynyk
Giannis Antetokounmpo
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Shai Glizzy, De’Aaron Fox, Monte Morris
SG: Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Grayson Allen
SF: Luguentz Dort, Deni Avdija, Jayson Tatum
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Jarred Vanderbilt
C: Domantas Sabonis, Brook Lopez, Walker Kessler
Popular DFS Play: Kelly Olynyk
Price: $5,200/$6,000
Own%: 56.22%/52.22%
DFS Value Play: Al Horford
Price: $4,800/$5,600
5x%: 55.20%/45.60%
Player to avoid in DFS: Malik Beasley
Price: $4,600/$4,800
LevX: -30.32/-38.79
NBA DFS final thoughts
Short slates like tonight make game stacking much more viable and will likely be somewhat popular in GPPs. The obvious leverage in that case is to not gamestack the highest total game. LIkewise, we have one clear stud that has ownership far above the rest but is also priced at a premium. Therefore, we’re likely going to see some highly questionable value chalk. The leverage there is to just go with a balanced construction. 3-game slates are going to require a couple of uncomfortable decisions but such is necessary to get adequate leverage in GPPs. Good luck as always!
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