Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- This Luka Doncic guy is pretty good at basketball it appears. A $12,600 salary seems high until you realize that Luka is averaging a cool 81.35 Draftkings points over his last 6 games. He gets a matchup with Boston tonight in a high total/close spread game. Luka put up 64.5 Draftkings when these teams played earlier this season and projects for easily the most raw points on tonight's slate.
- The Magic are once again short on bodies tonight as injuries, suspensions, and illness's have ravaged much of their depth. Cole Anthony has been providing the Magic some solid minutes and production recently and at just around 5K on Draftkings tonight he projects to be a good value. Jalen Suggs is questionable for this game, but the projection is already factoring in him playing (and he will be limited if he does), so if he doesn't go Anthony becomes an even better value.
- The MVP of the “Player to avoid section” makes a triumphant return tonight. With both Brandon Clarke, and more notably Desmond Bane, already ruled out for the Grizzlies, Dillon brooks will pick up quite a bit of ownership tonight. Brooks is probably underpriced for the increased usage he will receive without Bane, but he's also Dillon Brooks. He has eclipsed 24 Draftkings points just once in the last 7 games and remains as streaky as ever. Remember, friends don't let friends play chalky Dillon Brooks.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Luka Doncic
Eric Gordon
Malik Beasley
Steven Adams
Dillon Brooks
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Reggie Jackson, Tyus Jones, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
SG: David Roddy, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown
SF: Grant Williams, Jae'Sean Tate, Norman Powell
PF: Al Horford, Santi Aldama, Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Jokic, Dwight Powell, Mo Bamba
Popular DFS Play: Luka Doncic
Price: $12,600/$12,800
Own%: 56.43%/60.21%
DFS Value Play: Cole Anthony
Price: $5,100/$6,000
5x%: 62.90%/36.60%
Player to avoid in DFS: Dillon Brooks
Price: $5,600/$5,500
LevX: -18.10/-36.88
NBA DFS final thoughts
Without very much injury news and only having 4 games to choose from, tonight is a pretty tight slate. The status of Paul George is still up in the air, but if he suits up the value is very thin. One of the biggest leverage points on this slate is by rostering any high priced stud not named Luka Doncic. It's an extremely difficult fade given his recent production and his lofty projection.
However, he is extremely expensive and if he gets outscored by any of the other studs he is unlikely to be in the winning lineup given how tight the pricing is. Jokic is the clear pivot, and I would attempt to be overweight on him in GPPs at the cost of some Luka exposure.
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