Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Keldon Johnson has been the #1 option on offense for the Spurs this season and gets a usage bump with Vassell out tonight. Furthermore, he gets a top 5 matchup versus the Pistons who are allowing an overall 5% boost to fantasy production. Johnson is going to be immensely popular on both DFS sites as he’s underpriced relative to his current projection and ceiling.
- John Collins gets a plus matchup versus the Lakers and should continue to benefit from the absence of Capela. The Lakers are allowing a 9% FPPM boost to opposing power forwards and if Collins gets any time at C it’s even better. The matchup combined with his mid-range price is leading to Collins grading out as a strong value tonight.
- Naji Marshall should continue to see increased minutes and role with Zion and Ingram out. He’s currently projected for just over 30 minutes and is a solid FPPM player. However, while his median projection is about 6x his current price, he does have a somewhat limited ceiling unlikely to go for 8x-10x. That said, he’s a relatively safe play but at his current ownership he’s not going to provide any leverage and he’s unlikely to score enough to make him a “must play” in DFS.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Killian Hayes
Immanuel Quickley
Josh Richardson
Keldon Johnson
Naji Marshall
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Kyrie Irving, Dennis Schroder, Reggie Jackson
SG: Grayson Allen, Norman Powell, Isaiah Joe
SF: Hamidou Diallo, Joe Ingles, Cedi Osman
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Marcus Morris, Kenrich Williams
C: Nikola Jokic, Bam Adebayo, Julius Randle
Popular DFS Play: Keldon Johnson
Price: $6,800/$6,800
Own%: 52.83%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: John Collins
Price: $6,400/$6,500
5x%: 61.80%/57.30%
Player to avoid in DFS: Naji Marshall
Price: $5,000/$4,800
LevX: -5.07/-40.77
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight is shaping up to be a really good GPP slate. There are a lot of low-owned value plays but also low ownership on most of the expensive options. Thus, we can conclude that balanced builds are likely to be the most prevalent roster construction. Anytime you can get high upside players at low ownership you should try to take advantage. Additionally, with balanced builds there is often overconfidence in the ceiling of the midrange. Keep this in mind as you build tonight. Good luck!
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