Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- The Pelicans have already ruled out their three highest usage players & the 4th is questionable with a hand injury. Naji Marshall could very well lead the team in usage today and is just $5,000 on Draftkings. Marshall has been playing very well with Zion sidelined. He has scored 29.8 and 41.8 Draftkings points in the last 2 games, seeing 33 minutes in both. With the Pelicans fully depleted, expect Marshall to be one of many popular Pelicans players tonight.
- Perhaps the main beneficiary of CJ McCollum being ruled out for New Orleans is Jose Alvarado. Alvarado took 16 shots in 32 minutes of play yesterday with McCollum playing. Alvarado will likely draw the start now with McCollum out and at his meager price tag he projects as a fantastic value play tonight.
- Despite a short slate tonight, there are plenty of stud options to pay up for. One of them is Demar Derozan. Derozan has a clear ceiling, as he showed when he dropped 71 Draftkings points 3 games ago. However, Derozan has been held under 40 Draftkings points in 4 of the last 5 games and while he isn't entirely reliant on scoring real life points to accumulate fantasy points, his ceiling is largely tied to his shot falling, as rebounding and playmaking aren't his bread and butter. There are better spend up options to consider on tonight's slate.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jose Alvarado
Naji Marshall
Lebron James
Domantas Sabonis
Harrison Barnes
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Luka, Ty Jerome, Markelle Fultz
SG: Coby White, Patrick Beverley, Davion Mitchell
SF: Malik Beasley, Lauri Markkanen, Donte Divencenzo
PF: Christian Wood, Mo Wagner, JTA
C: Jaxson Hayes, Willy Hernangomez, Mo Bamba
Popular DFS Play: Naji Marshall
Price: $5,000/$4,800
Own%: 54.58%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: Jose Alvarado
Price: $3,900/$4,500
5x%: 90.60%/79.40%
Player to avoid in DFS: Demar Derozan
Price: $9,000/$9,100
LevX: -7.07/-4.21
NBA DFS final thoughts
We have yet another weekend slate where several key players on taking the day off. This tends to open up insane value and tonight's slate is no difference. I will again bring up something I talk about often in this section. It is likely in the case of the Pelicans that the value will still go underowned despite their extremely high projected ownership. There is just so much usage and minutes to absorb with a teams top 3-4 options out.
Eating the value may be the way to go, but remember to avoid negative correlation the best you can in scenarios like this. For example, Naji Marshall, Trey Murphy, and Herb Jones all project well tonight, yet it isn't very likely that all three reach their ceilings in the same game given how similar their roles are. Much of the field will ignore these negative correlations due to how well these players project at their price tags. However, especially in larger field contests, you can gain leverage by grouping out these negative correlations in your lineups. Good luck tonight!
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