Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Russell Westbrook has scored over 40 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games and now finds himself in a high total matchup without Lebron. With no AD and no Lebron, Westbrook should have insane usage harkening back to his OKC triple-double days. However, this is no secret and Westbrook is projected to garner high ownership on both DFS sites tonight.
- Dennis Schroder will benefit for all of the same reasons as Westbrook, but he comes with a significant price discount. Additionally, Schroder has a similar projection and lower ownership than some other players in his price range making him a strong pivot option. Schroeder has a median projection that’s already 6x his salary and there is certainly some upside for more.
- Desmond Bane is currently projected to be one of the highest owned players on the slate. This is likely due to Morant missing the last game and currently being listed as questionable. Bane filled in admirably in Morant’s absence putting up a 24-6-9 stat line in 31 minutes. Unfortunately, you’re not getting much of a discount on Bane and while his ceiling is certainly high, his median projection isn’t that much higher than some similarly priced players at lower ownership. Absolutely keep an eye on the news for this one.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Russel Westbrook
Josh Richardson (McDermott if Richardson OUT)
Desmond Bane
Julius Randle
Thomas Bryant
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Patrick Beverly, Jalen Brunson, Dennis Schroder
SG: KCP, Romeo Langford, Kevin Huerter
SF: Grant Williams, Patrick Williams, Zach LaVine
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Keegan Murray
C: Robert Williams, Brook Lopez, Domantas Sabonis
Popular DFS Play: Russell Westbrook
Price: $7,700/$8,500
Own%: 57.74%/49.18%
DFS Value Play: Dennis Schroder
Price: $5,700/$5,800
5x%: 51.30%/60.50%
Player to avoid in DFS: Desmond Bane
Price: $6,600/$6,700
LevX: -17.78/-44.48
NBA DFS final thoughts
There will be some very concentrated ownership tonight due to both injuries and it being a shorter slate. Presently all of the chalk is coming from the Lakers, Spurs, and Knicks. While the Knick/Bucks game projects to be close, both Lakers and Spurs do have some risk with both teams being double-digit underdogs per Vegas.
Despite Boston and Milwaukee being two of the top teams in the NBA, neither team is seeing high collective ownership. Likewise, neither the Grizzlies (aside from Bane) or the Nuggets have much ownership despite Vegas thinking that both teams roll tonight. Finally, the Pelicans also have injury issues and yet none of their players are expected to be popular in a solid matchup versus the Wizards. Good luck tonight!
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