Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Jimmy Buckets season is upon us. Butler is currently projected to be the highest owned player on both DFS sites due to multiple players out for the Heat. Lowry, Bam, and Herro are all out as well as Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson. It’s really hard to argue against Jimmy chalk with the Heat so short handed and in a great matchup at home versus the Thunder.
- Orlando Robinson is near min-price (Draftkings) and projected to play 27 minutes. Additionally, just his median projection is nearly 10x his salary. However, on Fanduel he is priced up to about where he should be. He is still a decent value on FD, but nowhere near as strong of a play. In either case, the Heat are without Bam, no Jovic, the corpse of Udonis Haslem questionable, and a mummified Dwayne Dedmon. This should be all Robinson.
- Isaiah Stewart is slightly underpriced considering the increased role he should see without Jalen Duren. Additionally, backup center Marvin Bagley is also out leaving Nerlens Noel as the only true C on the roster. Furthermore, Stewart does also get run at PF and the Pistons are also without Bojan. However, this a brutal matchup versus Embiid and the Sixers. There’s legitimate blowout risk, foul risk, high ownership, and over 10 similarly projected pivots in his price range. All of those factors make Stewart a pretty easy fade in GPPs tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Duane Washington
Landry Shamet
Jimmy Butler
Isaiah Stewart
Orlando Robinson
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: LaMelo Ball, Cole Anthony, Darius Garland
SG: Donovan Mitchell, Jaden Ivey, Victor Oladipo
SF: Grant Williams, Patrick Williams, Zach LaVine
PF: Lauri Markkanen, PJ Washington, Haywood Highsmith
C: Ivica Zubac, Walker Kessler, Jusuf Nurkic
Popular DFS Play: Jimmy Butler
Price: $8,900/$9,000
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: Orlando Robinson
Price: $3,100/$5,700
5x%: 92.10%/31.30%
Player to avoid in DFS: Isaiah Stewart
Price: $5,100/$5,600
LevX: -14.49/-45.27
NBA DFS final thoughts
There are some very obvious spots for value and chalk tonight. The Heat are extremely short handed, and we have injury situations with both Phoenix and Detroit as well. You do NOT need to fade these spots, however, it may be wise to fade the chalk plays. In each of these situations there are multiple players that can benefit but the ownership is going to be concentrated on one or two main players. This presents multiple fantastic leverage opportunities. Lastly, as usual we’re seeing lower owned high upside plays (Doncic and Harden, for example) and the midrange chalk has a multitude of viable pivots. Good luck tonight!
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