Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- This seems almost like a clear misprice by Draftkings on Josh Hart, who has been priced above $5,500 for essentially the entire season. Especially on a short slate like tonight, Hart will not be overlooked in what should be a close game against the Sixers. Some reduced minutes due to blowout may be the cause of the massive price reduction but in a close game Hart is usually good for 25+ Draftkings points with a ceiling of 30+. Expect Hart to be very popular tonight.
- With both Chris Paul and Landry Shamet out for the Suns tonight, Saben Lee may draw the start for Phoenix at point guard. Duane Washington was assuming this role prior to Shamet's return last game, but Lee was the one who saw most of the backup point guard role. If Lee were to start, he is far too cheap at just $3,200 with a liklihood of 25+ minutes. Even if he weren't to start, the Suns are so thin at the guard position that he would be forced to see substantial minutes and is essentially the dead minimum. Given this, Lee projects as a great value play on tonight's short slate.
- A short slate that is light on injury news can uncover some interesting chalk to say the least. Taurean Prince has been playing well recently with 20+ Draftkings points in 4 of the last 6 games. This will be appealing to much of the field at just $3,600, however, there is no mystery to Prince and therefore very little upside. His role remains steady and if his shot is falling he can get you Draftkings points. in the low 20s. This stability is good for cash games, but in GPPs you need nearly every player in your lineup to have a ceiling outcome and Prince is unlikely to put up a “must have” score.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Saben Lee
Josh Hart
Precious Achiuwa
Anthony Edwards
Kyle Anderson
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Steph Curry, Derrick White, Gary Payton
SG: Deanthony Melton, Jordan Poole, Joe Harris
SF: Donte Divencenzo, Anthony Lamb, Damion Lee
PF: Jayson Tatum, Nassir Little, Jerami Grant
C: Embiid, Siakam, Drew Eubanks
Popular DFS Player: Josh Hart
Price: $4,900/$5,800
Own%: 53.03%/31.41%
Value DFS Player: Saben Lee
Price: $3,200/$4,000
5x%: 70.00%/70.00%
Player to avoid in DFS: Taurean Prince
Price: $3,600/$4,700
LevX: -15.05/-
NBA DFS final thoughts
These short slates without much injury news can be tough. Given the tight pricing, some of the higher priced studs with immense ceiling like Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, etc. are likely to go underowned. I would do my best to prioritize these guys while also attempting to avoid the chalk players that are only chalk given the context of the slate, but in reality are not much different than players around them that will be less than half the ownership. Good luck tonight!
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