Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- RJ Barrett is going to be a popular option tonight due to a combination of factors. First the Knicks have a good matchup versus the Hawks. Secondly, RJ Barrett is averaging 0.97 fantasy points per minute over the past month and Thibs will play him 35+ minutes. Lastly, RJ is underpriced relative to his upside (at least on DK). This last point may be the most noteworthy as there are not too many pivots with his median/ceiling combo.
- Donte DiVincenzo should be able to benefit greatly from a depleted Warriors roster. Curry, Klay, Draymond, and Wiggins are all out tonight. DiVincenzo is simply too cheap for his role with those players off the floor. While he will be massively popular, he still stands as one of the top DFS values on the slate.
- Benedict Mathurin is another player getting an ownership boost due to injury with Haliburton still out. Additionally, Jokic was downgraded late this afternoon. If Jokic were to miss the likelihood of this being a competitive game improves significantly for the Pacers. However, he’s no longer cheap and will be fairly high owned. Thus we have another case of the midrange chalk with multiple pivots.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jordan Poole
Donte DiVincenzo
Benedict Mathurin
Anthony Lamb
RJ Barrett
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jamal Murray, Trae Young, Kyrie Irving
SG: Jordan Clarkson, Josh Giddey, Bruce Brown
SF: Luguentz Dort, Keldon Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr.
PF: John Collins, Julius Randle, Lauri Markkanen
C: Steven Adams, Walker Kessler, Bam Adebayo
Popular DFS Player: RJ Barrett
Price: $6,500/$7,000
Own%: 51.39%/40.81%
Value DFS Player: Donte DiVincenzo
Price: $5,100/$5,100
5x%: 65.90%/72.00%
Player to avoid in DFS: Benedict Mathurin
Price: $5,500/$5,300
LevX: -6.18/-28.98
NBA DFS final thoughts
Instant leverage on this DFS slate can be gained just by limiting the amount of Warriors in your lineup. While they are all fine plays, none of them is necessarily a must play and there are pivots at each of their respective price points. The next leverage point is volatile chalk option Benedict Mathurin, there are at least 10 players that project similarly at lower ownership. The last option is turning to low-owned studs. For example, you could play 25% Ja Morant or you could play 3% Trae Young – your choice. Good luck tonight!
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