Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- TJ McConnell has taken full advantage of the absence of Haliburton. He was heavy chalk last night getting up to over 80% in some contests and did not disappoint with over 40 fantasy points. At his ownership he was in virtually every winning DFS lineup last night. He will be incredibly popular once again, but there are still very few pivots with his combo of median/ceiling.
- Xavier Tillman is popping in the projections as one of the top values. The Grizzlies are without Steven Adams and Tillman drew the start last game playing 29 minutes. Despite projecting for slightly less minutes tonight at 25, Tillman still rates incredibly well and we know the upside for more minutes is there. Given his price is under $4k on Draftkings, and under $5k on Fanduel there’s not a whole lot to use by eating the chalk value. Additionally, the most comparable pivots also project to be high owned so it's not as easy to get different
- Zach Collins is going to be popular. There’s no injuries to the Spurs and while the Lakers do suck, the Spurs are objectively worse. Additionally, the Lakers are expecting Anthony Davis back tonight. LeBron is questionable and it is the second leg of a back-to-back. However, regardless of the situation with the Lakers it’s hard to justify a chalk player projected for 22 minutes with no real ceiling.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
TJ McConnell
Bruce Brown
Deni Avdija
Xavier Tillman
Ja Morant (Harden if Embiid is out)
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Delon Wright, Kyrie Irving, James Harden
SG: Jalen Green, Kevin Huerter, Jordan Poole
SF: Herb Jones, Scottie Barnes, Klay Thompson
PF: Keegan Murray, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kenrich Williams
C: Myles Turner, Nic Claxton, Pascal Siakam
Popular DFS Player: TJ McConnell
Price: $6,000/$6,700
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
Value DFS Player: Xavier Tillman
Price: $3,200/$4,600
5x%: 83.70%/44.20%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Zach Collins
Price: $3,600/$5,400
LevX: 0.16/14.33
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight is shaping up to be another stars and scrubs slate. TJ McConnell remains extremely popular but still a good play despite the ownership. Other popular players include value guys like Xavier Tillman, Zach Collins, and Deni Avdija. Although they weren’t showing up as super high owned, the additional Pacers guys were found in a lot of the sharp lineups as well as opto builds last night. Don’t be surprised to see decent ownership on Hield and Duarte again. News to watch for includes Jokic, Embiid, and LeBron Good luck!
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