Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Nothing really opens up value for NBA DFS quite like Luka and his 37% usage rate being ruled out. The main beneficiary in his absence is Spencer Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie gets a 7.6% usage bump with Luka off the floor this season. That climbs all the way up to a 13.4% bump with Luka and Wood off the floor, which amounts to a 34.9% usage rate and an average of 46.71 Draftkings points per 36 minutes when both Luka and Christian Wood are off the floor this season. Expect Dinwiddie to be extremely popular tonight in a great matchup vs Utah.
- A more under the radar benefactor of Luka missing time will be Dorian Finney-Smith. Finney-Smith receives a modest 2.7% increase in usage with both Luka and Wood off the floor this season. However, Finney-Smith scored 18 real life points on a season high 16 shot attempts after Luka went out in the first 3 minutes of last game. Given how cheap he is and his ability to score fantasy points without scoring a ton of real life points, Finney-Smith projects as a great value play tonight.
- Chris Paul has been playing very well in his 3 games since returning from injury, scoring 39+ Draftkings points in all 3 as Devin Booker remains out. However, Paul is climbing in price and aside from Booker the Suns are mostly back to full health with both Cam Johnson and Deandre Ayton back. This is an excellent matchup against the leagues worst defense in San Antonio, yet Paul is unlikely to continue being aggressive as he has been recently with reinforcements now around him. Given his ownership, there are better options than Paul tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Chris Paul
Spencer Dinwiddie
Dorian Finney-Smith
Josh Green
Dwight Powell
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Damian Lillard, Josh Richardson, Patrick Beverley
SG: Bogdan, Kevin Huerter, Gary Trent
SF: Lebron, Tatum, Lauri
PF: Kawhi, Reggie Bullock, Tari Eason
C: Sabonis, Anthony Davis, Nurkic
Popular DFS Player: Spencer Dinwiddie
Price: $7,400/$8,000
Own%: 49.16%/37.60%
Value DFS Player: Dorian Finney-Smith
Price: $4,400/$4,900
5x%: 63.60%/49.40%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Chris Paul
Price: $7,900/$8,100
LevX: -27.12/-34.65
NBA DFS final thoughts
Nothing compares to the value that opens up when Luka Doncic is out given how much offense he is responsible for. There are at least 5 viable Mavs players tonight, and pending further injury news this slate will likely be decided by choosing the correct ones. One route you could take is limiting your lineups to just 3 total Mavs, another could be separating players with similar roles like Tim Hardaway Jr and Spencer Dinwiddie, who will be paired together in an outsized number of lineups. Whichever route you choose to go just make sure you are being cognizant of how you're handling the Mavs players that all project quite well. Good luck tonight!
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