Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- LaMelo Ball is just flat out underpriced on Fanduel. Consequently, he will be massive chalk there. He also projects to be pretty popular on Draftkings as well despite being more appropriately priced. Ball is well above a FPPM producer and should see 35+ minutes in this game as long as it stays competitive.
- Grayson Allen has stepped it up recently and is playing the best basketball of his career, however, even with that he’s still averaging less than a fantasy point per minute. Additionally, outside of a blowout he likely plays under 30 minutes in this game. That said, he does have a solid median projection for his price but it also comes with sky high ownership.
- Pat Connaughton projected to be one of the highest owned DFS plays isn’t something you expect to see with a pretty much fully healthy Bucks team but here we are. Granted, he does project well for his price, however, there are still viable pivots at far lower ownership. A slightly higher price on Fanduel is keeping his ownership in check there, but he currently projects to be almost 60% owned on Draftkings. He is absolutely fadeable tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
LaMelo Ball
Grayson Allen
Pat Connaughton
Giannis
Larry Nance Jr.
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Darius Garland, Jrue Holiday
SG: Donovan Mitchell, Victor Oladipo, Terry Rozier
SF: Jalen McDaniels, Trey Murphy III, Kawhi Leonard
PF: Jimmy Butler, Patrick Williams, Evan Mobley
C: Nikola Jokic, Bam Adebayo, Nikola Vucevic
Popular DFS Player: LaMelo Ball
Price: $9,500/$8,000
Own%: 38.83%/70.00%
Value DFS Player: Grayson Allen
Price: $4,400/$4,600
5x%: 52.20%/53.40%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Pat Connaughton
Price: $4,500/$5,300
LevX: -31.80/-6.94
NBA DFS final thoughts
Limiting exposure to cheap Bucks is the clearest path to differentiation tonight. Additionally, you can get different by playing a spend up other than Giannis, Randle, or LaMelo. Leverage can also be gained by playing some of the other players on those teams, such as Jrue, RJ Barrett, or Mason Plumlee respectively among others. Based on current ownership it appears that people are going to force value with plays that are a lot more volatile than they want to admit. This is a perfect opportunity to take advantage of that overconfidence in GPPs. Good luck tonight!
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