Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Mikal Bridges is now up to $7k on Draftkings and $7.3k on FD. Thankfully, he’s seen a boost to his usage rate as well as his price. Booker, Payne, and Shamet remain out for the Suns which should see that usage rate stay in the mid-20% range. However, recency bias is a hell of a drug and Bridges will be very popular tonight as people chase the ceiling outcome from his last game.
- Harrison Barnes is never an exciting player to roster, but he is a fairly consistent value option. That is once again the case tonight as he is one of the few players to rate as a strong value on both DFS sites. Additionally, the Kings take on the Spurs who are atrocious on defense and in full tank mode. This game currently has the highest projected total as it should be fast paced and defense-less.
- Eric Gordon is going to be the highest owned player in DFS tonight. That alone is reason to fade, but we can dive into specifics. His price has gone significantly, but his median and ceiling are the same. This simple math reduces his value of the bat. Additionally, there are no less than 10 similarly projected players at lower ownership. In cash games fine, but in GPPs this really should be the first decision you are making.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Mike Conley
Eric Gordon
Josh Hart
Keegan Murray
Mikal Bridges
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Markelle Fultz, Kyrie Irving, Fred Van Vleet
SG: Derrick White, Dejounte Murray, Josh Giddey
SF: Kevin Huerter, Royce O’Neal, Kenyon Martin Jr.
PF: Lauri Markkanen, Jayson Tatum, John Collins
C: Jakob Poeltl, Precious Achiuwa, NIc Claxton
Popular DFS Player: Mikal Bridges
Price: $7,000/$7,300
Own%: 38.82%/43.94%
Value DFS Player: Harrison Barnes
Price: $5,000/$5,400
5x%: 49.70%/36.20%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Eric Gordon
Price: $5,300/$5,000
LevX: -20.01/-43.10
NBA DFS final thoughts
The easiest leverage point on the slate tonight is fading Eric Gordon. KPJ and Jalen Green are both out, however, you can play several other Rockets at lower ownership and still take advantage of the situation. Additionally, the ownership on the high-end is heavily concentrated on Embiid so simply playing another stud will be a way to be different. The chalk construction right now appears to be mid-range value chalk with Embiid. Good luck tonight!
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