Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- In typical weekend fashion we have a laundry list of key players whose status's are uncertain and unfortunately 2 of the biggest on the slate are both apart of the last game. Trae Young briefly left the game last night in the 3rd quarter before returning and is now questionable vs the Nuggets on the 2nd night of a back to back. If Trae were to miss, Deandre Hunter is actually the Hawk that gets the biggest usage bump with Trae off the floor this season. Hunter gets a 4.6% usage bump with Trae off the floor, followed by Dejounte Murray who gets a 3% increase. Both Hunter and Murray would be strong options with Trae out, as well as whoever gets the starting nod in his place.
- Nikola Jokic is the other shoe to drop in this Hawks Nuggets late game, as he is also listed questionable (as is Aaron Gordon). If Jokic were to be ruled out, the biggest beneficiaries would be Jamal Murray and Bones Hyland. Murray gets a 5.1% increase in usage with Jokic off the court this season and Hyland follows close behind with a 4.7% increase. Zeke Nnaji is likely to start in Jokic's place and given his price tag he will likely be a major value play. Bruce Brown is the likely starter in the case that Gordon misses and is very productive when he sees increased minutes.
- Jalen Green has missed a handful of games in a row now but his status is up in the air for Houston's game against OKC tonight. Houston is on the 2nd night of a back to back, and Eric Gordon along with Jae'Sean Tate have both already been ruled out. There will be value here whether Green plays or not, but if he misses things could get really crazy. There is no sample size with all of KPJ/Green/Gordon/Tate off the floor this season, but it would be safe to assume that Sengun, Kenyon Martin, and Jabari Smith Jr. would lead the Rockets in usage.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Spencer Dinwiddie
Gabe Vincent
Josh Green
Jimmy Butler
Deandre Ayton
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Steph Curry, Shaedon Sharpe, Tre Mann
SG: Joe Ingles, Damion Lee, Grayson Allen
SF: Kawhi, Deandre Hunter, Wesley Matthews
PF: Julius Randle, Giannis, Isaiah Stewart
C: Jokic (if he plays), Kevon Looney, Jock Londale
DFS Situation to monitor #1: Trae Young
Price: $/$
Own%: %/%
DFS Situation to monitor #2: Nikola Jokic
Price: $/$
5x%: %/%
DFS Situation to monitor #3: Jalen Green
Price: $/$
LevX: /
NBA DFS final thoughts
The best piece of advice I can give you regarding a slate with this much uncertainty is to leave yourself as much flexibility as possible. With so much key injury news coming in the later games with the likes of Jalen Green, Jokic, Trae Young, Aaron Gordon, etc it is imperative that you try to leave yourself optionality that your opponents won't have. Remember that the biggest edge in NBA DFS is still reacting to news and late swap, so take advantage of it. Good luck tonight!
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