Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Giannis is going to be most popular spend up option by a wide margin on both DFS sites. Not only has he been playing fantastic, but there is a surplus of value tonight which makes fitting him in your lineup very easy to do. Additionally, with Luka still sidelined and no Jokic on the slate, Giannis has the highest raw point ceiling.
- Frank Ntilkina is the bare minimum price, the Mavs are still without Luka, and they just traded Spencer Dinwiddie. This is a very, very thin backcourt. While not necessarily a strong FPPM play, this is a pure value based play given expected volume. At a current minutes projection of 26 Frank should do enough to hit value. One note is that he is questionable with a non-covid illness. If he were to be ruled out all of the above also applies to Wright IV and AJ Lawson.
- Stanley Johnson is also projected to be value chalk tonight, however, he comes with absurdly low usage and very high ownership. With a low usage rate and middling FPPM rate you absolutely need him to match the 28 minutes he played last game, and even then it’s a pretty limited ceiling. There are a decent number of value options tonight so this is one you can skip over in favor of a lower owned pivot.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jaden Hardy
Edmond Sumner
Frank Ntilkina
Stanley Johnson
Giannis Antetokounmpo
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Darius Garland, Alex Caruso, Jaden Ivey
SG: Zach LaVine, Cam Thomas, Josh Giddey
SF: Josh Hart, Corey Kispert, Keldon Johnson
PF: Evan Mobley, Kenyon Martin Jr., Jayson Tatum
C: Alperen Sengun, Jarrett Allen, Nic Claxton
DFS Popular Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Price: $12,100/$12,200
Own%: 43.60%/46.10%
DFS Value Player: Frank Ntilkina
Price: $3,000/$3,500
5x%: 82.70%/81.80%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Stanley Johnson
Price: $3,300/$4,400
LevX: -4.09/5.59
NBA DFS final thoughts
As this is being written Jaylen Brown just got ruled out which will likely increase Tatum's ownership, but Giannis should still be the highest owned stud. An easy way to get different is simply playing any other star outside of Giannis. Additionally, limiting exposure to value Mavs and value Nets is viable as well. You could also elect to focus on the mid-range and higher priced options on those respective teams. Be mindful of how much chalk you are taking on tonight as there are lot of unknown situations that may not play out as people expect them to. Good luck tonight!
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