Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Edmond Sumner is likely going to be the highest owned player on both DFS sites tonight. Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith won’t be making their Nets debut, and Durant remains out. Ben Simmons is back but isn’t really a threat to usage. Sumner remains underpriced for his current role, and inexplicably saw a price decrease on Draftkings. Ownership is sky high but there’s not really any comparable pivots.
- Cam Thomas is coming off two monster games scoring over 50 fantasy points in each and recent bias will be heavy. While 50+ is certainly a ceiling outcome, Killa Cam’s performance may not be flukey. He has taken over 20 shots in back to back games and for his career when he’s played 26 minutes or more he’s scoring about 30 fantasy points every time. However, there is some regression coming; he’s shot over 60% from the field and nearly 70% from beyond the arc. Despite regression hitting the efficiency, the volume should still be there tonight.
- Herb Jones is curiously chalk. While Zion is still out the rest of the team is pretty much healthy. However, on the plus side it is a great matchup against the Hawks. The main issue here is the low/mid-range price leads to more viable pivots at lower ownership. This spot would be one of the first you can look at to get different. Note that this changes if Ingram is ultimately ruled out.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Edmond Sumner
Cam Thomas
Brandon Ingram
Herb Jones
Isaiah Hartenstein
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Cole Anthony, Trae Young, Dennis Schroder
SG: Josh Giddey, Quentin Grimes, Royce O’Neal
SF: Zach LaVine, Franz Wagner, Michael Porter Jr.
PF: Larry Nance Jr., John Collins, Cam Johnson
C: Nikola Vucevic, Nic Claxton, Clint Capela
DFS Popular Player: Edmond Sumner
Price: $4,100/$5,300
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Player: Cam Thomas
Price: $5,200/$6,500
5x%: 75.10%/35.10%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Herb Jones
Price: $4,900/$5,400
LevX: -10.92/-24.81
NBA DFS final thoughts
DeMar DeRozan, Jamal Murray, Dejounte Murray were all late downgrades, and Brandon Ingram and JoVal are game-time decisions. Thus, Ii may be wise to leave your rosters flexible to respond to late news. Aside from that, the popular starting point looks to be Sumner/Thomas with some Pelicans and Knicks mixed in. This leaves a few teams getting overlooked such as the Bulls, Suns, and Grizzlies. Sticking with a small core and rotating piece around it seems like a smart way to navigate the slate. Good luck tonight!
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