Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Jordan Poole will continue to see an increased role with Curry sidelined and historically this has resulted in about a 6% increase in usage rate. With this positive bump, as long as Poole remains priced in the $7k range on both sites expect him to be a popular DFS play. Assuming tonight’s game is competitive Poole should see 30+ minutes and has a legitimate 50 point ceiling.
- Gabe Vincent is projected to be massive chalk tonight for the shorthanded Heat. Lowry and Oladipo remain out which resulted in Vincent playing 34 minutes in the last game. Additionally, the Heat get a fantastic matchup versus the Pacers. However, Gabe Vincent is a pretty poor fantasy point per minute producer. He’s averaging around 0.7 FPPM on the season, and even if we boost it up to 0.8 considering the situation it’s still a fairly underwhelming median.
- Jimmy Butler will be popular tonight for all the same reasons as Gabe Vincent, and similar to Jordan Poole he is also underpriced for his ceiling. That being said, Butler is still at a price point that leads to multiple pivots in his tier. Not only are there viable pivots with lower ownership, some of them project better straight up. Don’t feel forced to play Butler tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Gabe Vincent
Jordan Poole
Josh Richardson
Jimmy Butler
Kelly Olynyk
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Killian Hayes, D’Angelo Russell (if not traded), Fred VanVleet (if not traded)
SG: Jalen Green, Bradley Beal, Caris LeVert
SF: Gary Trent Jr., Saddiq Bey, Norman Powell
PF: Evan Mobley, Isaiah Stewart, Keita Bates-Diop
C: Al Horford, Jalen Duren, Mason Plumlee
DFS Popular Player: Jordan Poole
Price: $7,100/$7,600
Own%: 58.43%/31.63%
DFS Value Player: Gabe Vincent
Price: $4,300/$4,200
5x%: 68.30%/71.10%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Jimmy Butler
Price: $8,100/$8,800
LevX: -7.93/-4.83
NBA DFS final thoughts
The easiest leverage point tonight is fading Gabe Vincent. By doing so you’ll be different from over half the field in your DFS contests. In addition to fading Gabe, you might also consider limiting exposure to Miami Heat overall or going heavier on the less owned players. Also keep an eye on news regarding Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. If one or both of them are out it opens up significant usage and value for the rest of the Cavs. Additionally, we’re approaching the trade deadline so be vigilant for late downgrades and/or potential trade talks. Good luck tonight!
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