Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- The trade deadline has opened up some massive value for a couple team on tonight's slate, one of which is the Phoenix Suns. After trading Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson for Kevin Durant and then shipping off Dario Saric, the Suns are left with just 9 active players tonight. Perhaps even more pertinent than that, the Suns are extremely limited on ball handling tonight. Damion Lee should start as Devin Booker is sidelined for this game and see close to mid 30s minutes in a close game tonight. Lee is below $4K on both sites and will end up as massive chalk on tonight's slate.
- Another team that has been left short on bodies following the trade deadline is the Los Angeles Lakers. After trading away several rotational players, including Russell Westbrook, and Lebron being ruled out with an ankle injury (probably just hungover) the Lakers have a whopping 8 available players tonight. Lonnie should see a huge increase in role tonight and is essentially the dead minimum on Draftkings. Walker projects as a great value play tonight.
- Going back to the Phoenix Suns, one of their 9 available players tonight will be Josh Okogie. Okogie is projected to pick up quite a bit of ownership tonight, and the state of the suns roster is why. However, Okogie is unlikely to start and if the game should remain close the Suns could lean heavily on their starters, playing them heavy minutes. Furthermore, Okogie averages less than a FPPM, so it is very possible that even in extended run Okogie could fail to put up a GPP winning score, even at his minimum salary.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Chris Paul
Damion Lee
Torrey Craig
Rui Hachimura
Anthony Davis
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jevon Carter, Alex Caruso, Coby White
SG: KCP, Grayson Allen, Christian Braun
SF: Austin Reaves, Wesley Matthews, Max Christie
PF: Jonathon Isaac, Patrick Williams
C: Mo Wagner, Brook Lopez, Onyeka Okonkwu
DFS Popular Player: Damion Lee
Price: $3,200/$3,900
Own%: 68.42%/70.00%
DFS Value Player: Lonnie Walker
Price: $3,100/$4,300
5x%: 83.00%/50.50%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Josh Okogie
Price: $3,000/$3,700
LevX: -26.75/-36.16
NBA DFS final thoughts
Crazy value has opened up with so many teams missing players due to the trade deadline. There is a lot of value tonight that is going to go over owned relative to comparable value that projects only slightly worse yet will be owned at only a fraction of the chalky value. This is a rare slate where several of the best pivots are not the studs, but rather the value guys that are being under-owned due to just slight differences in projection. Prioritize balancing the chalky value with the value that may actually give you leverage and do your best to avoid the bad chalk that could bust half the field's lineups with a snowflake. Good luck tonight!
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