Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Colin Sexton is basically the last PG standing for the Jazz with Mike Conley gone and Westbrook not suiting up. Additionally, the Jazz also traded away Malik Beasley who would have been another potential ball-handler for Utah. The Jazz now find themselves super thin in the back court and Sexton should see the biggest boost. His price isn’t in punt territory which makes the fade more viable at his expected ownership.
- Zach Collins currently projects as the strongest value play on both DFS sites, however, he also projects as the highest owned player. Unlike Sexton though Collins has no comparable pivots despite his price being a value but not a pure punt. This is largely due to the fact that he is just over a fantasy point per minute producer and is expected to play over 25+ minutes tonight.
- Blake Wesley is a punt option on the Spurs and will be popular because he’s cheap and the Spurs are short handed. How effective and productive he will be is anyone’s guess. Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, and Jermey Sochan are all out for San Antonio and they traded Josh Richardson. Despite all that they still have 10 players and Pop will gladly play all 10. Additionally, Devonte’ Graham is available to play at the PG/SG position for them as well as Malaki Branham.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Zach Collins
Colin Sexton
Blake Wesley
Paul George
One of Lillard, Giannis, Embiid
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: De’Aaron Fox, Fred VanVleet, Jalen Brunson
SG: Jaden Ivey, Gabe Vincent, Donovan Mitchell
SF: Stanley Johnson, Josh Okogie, Sam Hauser
PF: Jayson Tatum, Lauri Markkanen, PJ Washington
C: Bam Adebayo, Alperen Sengun, Jonas Valanciunas
DFS Popular Player: Colin Sexton
Price: $4,000/$5,200
Own%: 36.73%/21.12%
DFS Value Player: Zach Collins
Price: $4,000/$5,000
5x%: 89.00%/71.70%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Blake Wesley
Price: $3,000/$3,500
LevX: -0.89/-30.13
NBA DFS final thoughts
Two of the main ways to gain leverage tonight are limiting exposure to value Spurs, and playing the studs outside of Lillard, Giannis, Embiid. Thankfully, there are a multitude of spend-up options with high upside and lower ownership. Additionally, there are more pivots than one would think with all of the value chalk. This slate is likely going to come down to identifying the stronger value plays at lower ownership and taking heavier stands on them.Good luck tonight!
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