Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- After the Hornets traded Mason Plumlee at the deadline for essentially nothing, opportunities for Mark Williams & Nick Richards to see substantial playing time opened up. We have just a one game sample size so far, but surprisingly Williams dominated minutes over Richards against Boston, seeing 31 minutes to Richards 17. Williams is extremely effective in the minutes he's out there, posting 32.5 Draftkings points in those 31 minutes he played last game. This could be a very difficult matchup against Nikola Jokic, but given Williams price tag he will undoubtedly be one of the most popular plays on tonight's slate.
- Collin Sexton has been the main beneficiary since Utah traded former starting PG Mike Conley. Sexton has always been effective in the minutes that he plays, but now with Conley out of the picture the 20 minutes he was seeing per game has climbed into the 30s. Sexton has scored 37.8 and 43.8 Draftkings points in the 2 games since Conley was traded. Furthermore, Sexton is still just $4,000 on Draftkings & teammate Jordan Clarkson is questionable. Whether Clarkson plays or not, Sexton is a tremendous value.
- Collins is coming off a massive 49.3 Draftkings points explosion in his first game without Jakob Poeltl in the picture. However, Poeltl was facing one of the most fantasy friendly teams in the league in Detroit, & San Antonio was down 3 starters. This included the focal points of their offense in Keldon Johnson & Tre Jones. With both Johnson & Jones returning tonight it is unlikely Collins will see the same usage he saw in that double OT game against Detroit. So while Collins is still too cheap at $4,100, he is drawing plenty of ownership & may provide a good place to find leverage tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Trae Young
Collin Sexton
Andrew Wiggins
Zach Collins
Mark Williams
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Caruso, Jalen Suggs, Kyrie
SG: Austin Reaves, Corey Kispert, Isaac Okoro
SF: Bullock, Highsmith, Josh Green
PF: Sochan, Patrick Williams, Rudy Gay
C: Jokic, Onyeka Onkongwu, Kevon Looney
DFS Popular Player: Mark Williams
Price: $3,500/$4,800
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Player: Collin Sexton
Price: $4,000/$5,200
5x%: 79.30%/51.80%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Zach Collins
Price: $4,100/$5,000
LevX: -23.89/-35.48
NBA DFS final thoughts
This slate provides a unique opportunity to gain a massive edge on your opponents. With both Mark Williams and Zach Collins only being Center eligible on Draftkings and projecting for 50+% ownership, limiting your lineups in large field GPPs to only contain one will give you massive differentiation from your opponents.
Since Draftkings only allows for one Center and one Flex option, it is very likely that the combination of Collins/Williams will see outsized ownership given their projections. If a specific group is not made to limit only one per lineup, optimizers will be jamming these two in at an excessive rate. This is fine for cash, but it offers a great opportunity to get leverage against your opponents in GPPs as well. Good luck tonight!
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