Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Mark Williams is currently projected to be one of the highest owned players on either DFS site tonight. The Hornets traded Mason Plumlee which leaves them with the combination of Mark Williams and Nick Richards at the C position. Williams is a fantastic per minute producer averaging 1.2 FPPM, however, 30 minutes is not a lock. While he and Richards should split all 48 C minutes, the actual breakdown is more volatile than the industry is projecting. That said Williams is still cheap and worst case should still play over 20 minutes.
- Max Strus rates as one of the strongest value options on the slate. The Heat only have 10 players available, and it’s really 9 assuming the corpse of Udonis Haslem doesn’t actually get thrown on the court. Granted the last game went to OT which inflated the minutes of everyone, however, Strus should still play over 30 minutes tonight giving him an extremely high chance of hitting value. Additionally, if his shooting gets hot he can absolutely bury you.
- Jimmy Butler projects to be a solid play and will benefit for all of the same reasons as Strus. However, at his price point Butler has more viable pivots with comparable median projections and lower ownership. The mid to high range is generally a better place to get different in GPPs as the range of outcomes and median/ceiling combo between players is closer.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Mark Williams
Max Strus
Jimmy Butler
Talen Horton-Tucker
Joel Embiid or Damian Lillard
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jalen Brunson, Darius Garland, D’Angelo Russell
SG: Devonte’ Graham, Dejounte Murray, Jalen Green
SF: Mikal Bridges, Caleb Martin, DeMar DeRozan
PF: Paolo Banchero, Keldon Johnson, Evan Mobley
C: Alperen Sengun, Nic Claxton, Nikola Vucevic
DFS Popular Player: Mark Williams
Price: $4,000/$5,200
Own%: 70.00%/62.70%
DFS Value Player: Max Strus
Price: $3,800/$4,200
5x%: 79.10%/70.50%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Jimmy Butler
Price: $8,500/$8,900
LevX: -5.87/-9.18
NBA DFS final thoughts
How you decide to handle the Miami Heat situation is a key factor tonight. Outside of small field GPPs it’s very hard to justify playing Strus and Butler together at their collective ownership. Bam and Martin appear to be the lower-owned of the starting 5. Additionally, playing a stud other than Embiid or Lillard should give your lineup differentiation. Good luck tonight!
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