Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Derrick White is already averaging around a fantasy point per minute and with no Brown/Tatum/Smart on the court it jumps to 1.22 FPPM. He’s currently projected to play around 37 minutes which makes him a very strong play even at his elevated price. White will be incredibly popular in DFS tonight but for good reason.
- Matisse Thybulle is min-priced on Draftkings and close to the minimum on Fanduel. Jerami Grant has already been ruled out and Josh Hart was traded to the Knicks. Thybulle started last night and played 26 minutes despite essentially not playing the 4th quarter. We should expect a similar minutes projection tonight and Thybulle absolutely crushed his salary-based expectations last game. Understandably, he rates as an extremely strong value tonight.
- Malcolm Brogdon is another beneficiary from the short-handed Celtics rotation, however, his median projection isn’t anything extraordinary relative to his price. Due to this fact there are more comparable pivots at his price range than there are for his backcourt mate Derrick White. While you’ll likely still want multiple Celtics in your lineups tonight, Brogdon is one that you can fade at his inflated ownership.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Derrick White
Malcolm Brogdon
Matisse Thybulle
Drew Eubanks
Giannis or Damian Lillard
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jrue Holiday, Fred VanVleet, Jordan Poole
SG: Bradley Beal, Donte DiVincenzo, Franz Wagner
SF: Scottie Barnes, Norman Powell, Sam Hauser
PF: Grant Williams, Chris Boucher, Draymond Green
C: Deandre Ayton, Pascal Siakam, Wendell Carter Jr.
DFS Popular Player: Derrick White
Price: $7,100/$7,200
Own%: 59.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Player: Matisse Thybulle
Price: $3,000/$3,700
5x%: 86.80%/81.50%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Malcolm Brogdon
Price: $5,700/$5,600
LevX: -19.77/-30.08
NBA DFS final thoughts
Smaller slate than last night but a similar thought process. Tonight comes down primarily to how you handle the Celtics situation. You can elect to limit exposure, or you can target lower owned pieces from that game. A Blake Griffin troll game for instance isn’t all that wild of a possibility. As of now the chalk seems heavily concentrated on Boston and Portland, but that still leaves 8 teams with potential lower ownership. Good luck tonight!
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