Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Zach Collins is projected for close to 30 minutes tonight and has been averaging just over a fantasy point per minute this season which should give him a solid floor. Additionally, with the Spurs sending Poeltl to the Raptors at the trade deadline the opportunity is there for Collins to be the lead option at center. As if all this weren’t reason enough for Collins to be popular, the Spurs also have a fantastic matchup versus the Hornets who have been getting destroyed by opposing centers all season.
- Ayo Dosunmu is in line for more minutes and more usage tonight with DeMar DeRozon confirmed out. While he has a pretty awful fantasy point per minute rate, he is also projected to play 35 minutes. Thankfully, at a price of just $4,400 on both DFS sites he should be able to just bludgeon his way to value. The main thing to look out for is to make sure he is starting, if he isn’t just substitute Alex Caruso in his place.
- Zach LaVine stands to benefit for all of the same reasons as Ayo, however, he will be higher owned and is a worse point-per-$ value. Additionally, given his price there are just more viable pivots in his range such as Jalen Brunson and Brandon Ingram (especially if CJ misses). LaVine is a fine cash game play but this is a spot you can look to get different at in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Ayo Dosunmu or Alex Caruso
Zach LaVine
Jae'Sean Tate
Zach Collins
LaMelo Ball
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jalen Brunson, Ja Morant, Shai Glizzy
SG: Brandon Ingram, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Green
SF: Josh Richardson, LeBron James (if he plays), Mikal Bridges
PF: Julius Randle, Jimmy Butler, PJ Washington
C: Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, Jarrett Allen
DFS Popular Player: Zach Collins
Price: $5,100/$6,400
Own%: 60.66%/38.96.00%
DFS Value Player: Ayo Dosunmu
Price: $4,400/$4,400
5x%: 60.00%/74.10%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Zach LaVine
Price: $8,500/$7,600
LevX: -25.41/-40.13
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight is fairly straightforward as far as leverage. You can fade the Bulls backcourt and play a center other than Zach Collins. In fact, you can do both at once by playing Nikola Vucevic. LaMelo Ball looks like the most popular spend up, but Jokic and Luka have arguably the highest ceilings on the slate and both are projected to be under 10%. There is some very volatile chalk tonight that we can take advantage of in DFS. Good luck tonight!
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