Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Coming off a 28 Draftkings points performance in the absence of Demar Derozan, Ayo Dosumnu finds himself in a similar spot tonight. With Derozan, Goran Dragic, and Alex Caruso all ruled out for the Bulls tonight, expect extremely heavy minutes for the starters. Ayo played 43 minutes last night and should see similar minutes tonight barring a blowout. Ayo fills up the stat sheet in all capacities, making him likely to be one of the highest owned players again on tonight's slate.
- The Bucks are dealing with a few injuries themselves. Both Pat Connaugton and Khris Middleton have been ruled out for tonight's game against the Bulls. Who will start in Connaughton's place is still up in the air, but Joe Ingles has a good chance for an increased role whether he starts or not. Ingles saw 31 minutes last game and should be expected to have a floor in the upper 20s tonight whether he draws the start or not. Ingles isn't a massive producer on a per minute basis, however, he is just above minimum price on both sites tonight and should command increased usage in the absences of Middleton and Connaughton. This makes Ingles a great value play on tonight's slate.
- Coby White is coming off a monster 37.8 Draftkings points performance last night and finds himself in perhaps an even better spot tonight. White went 9-12 from the field and 5-8 from 3 on his way to scoring 25 real life points against Indiana last night off the bench. Tonight White likely sees himself in the starting lineup with Alex Caruso ruled out. White was already going to be super popular tonight, but his ownership may be even more inflated following a big game. White is not someone who gets very many ancillary stats at all, so if his shot isn't falling he could easily wind up not being necessary to win a GPP. Due to the volatile nature of his fantasy scoring and the inflated ownership he is likely to see, White is a solid fade candidate on tonight's slate.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Ayo Dosumnu
Coby White
Mike Conley
Giannis
Rudy Gobert
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Carlik Jones, Jevon Carter, Delon Wright
SG: Damion Lee, Terance Mann, Devin Booker
SF: Wesley Matthews, Eric Gordon, Paul George
PF: Deni Avdija, Torrey Craig, Ish Wainright
C: Jock Landale, Andre Drummond, Daniel Gafford
DFS Popular Player: Ayo Dosumnu
Price: $4,200/
Own%: 60.34%/
DFS Value Player: Joe Ingles
Price: $3,400/
5x%: 78.00%/
Player to Avoid in DFS: Coby White
Price: $4,100/
LevX: -35.57/
NBA DFS final thoughts
It can often be tough to identify leverage on small slates like the 3 gamer we have tonight. However, a lot of the value is congregating around 2 team that are missing key players. Chicago and Milwaukee are likely to contain 6 or more of the 10 highest owned players on tonights slate. This presents a unique opportunity to find leverage by identifying negative correlation that the field may ignore in exchange for raw projection.
For example, it is very likely that much of the field will be playing an outsized amount of both Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White in their lineups despite the negative correlation that they share. Given the fact that they both share similar positions and roles on this Bulls team, Dosumnu and White negatively correlate at their ceiling outcomes even at their low price tags. It is less likely that if one smashes the other will smash too. This presents an opportunity for you to separate them in your lineups, thus differentiating you from much of the field. Another option could be to have MAX 2 of: White, Dosunmu, Lavine. Good luck tonight!
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