Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- The Portland Trailblazers were already going to be short 2 of their top 4 options with Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic both out indefinitely due to ankle injuries. Now their plane got delayed and both Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant have been ruled out for “rest”… Basically 80+% of the Blazers usage is up for grabs tonight. Keon Johnson is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries in this situation as he boasts a very high usage when he actually gets minutes. He is literally the dead minimum on both sites and will be pushing the upper limits in ownership by the field tonight.
- Another Portland Trailblazer that is now far too cheap for the role he is expected to step into is Nassir Little. Little actually sees some regular time in the Blazers rotation and has been averaging close to .75 FPPM. Give Little a minutes projection around 30 in a plus matchup and you get close to a 30 point median projection at sub 4K on both sites. This makes Little a great value play tonight.
- With Mike Conley traded Talen Horton-Tucker has seen a big increase in role. Now with Collin Sexton also out for the next 2 games THT will likely see an even bigger role and could even draw the start here tonight against OKC. However, the pOWN THT is drawing right now is largely due to an assumption that he will be starting. It is entirely possible that the Jazz start Agbaji instead and the field will not react quick enough to pivot from some THT exposure. Whether he starts or not, value has opened up elsewhere in ways that allow you to differentiate from the field by avoiding a situation that your opponents may be overconfident in.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Talen Horton Tucker
Nassir Little
Cam Reddish
Keon Johnson
Embiid
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Ja Morant, Ty Jerome, Andrew Nembhard
SG: Gary Harris, KCP, Austin Reaves
SF: Vlatko Cancar, Dillon Brooks, Isaac Okoro
PF: Aaron Neismith, Reggie Bullock, Keegan Murray
C: Charles Bassey, Jaylin Williams, Dwight Powell
DFS Popular Player: Keon Johnson
Price: $3,000/$3,500
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Player: Nassir Little
Price: $3,700/3,900
5x%: 73.10%/69.00
Player to Avoid in DFS: Talen Horton Tucker
Price: $4,800/5,600
LevX: -12.87/-11.87
NBA DFS final thoughts
Much of this slate boils down to lucking into the right Portland value pieces while avoiding the ones who bust. This is going to be hit or miss with so much uncertainty about their rotation. However, there are strategic ways to get a leg up on your opponents.
Optimizers will likely be jamming in 3+ Blazers into every lineup and some may even push 5+ in some lineups. Despite their ridiculously low prices, they still have to get minutes and perform so it is less likely that all of them smash together. By creating a group of no more than 3 Blazers per lineup or even no more than 2 in very large field contests, you will take a step that many of your opponents will likely overlook. Good luck tonight!
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