Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Alperen Sengun is projected to be extremely popular on both DFS sites tonight. Both KPJ and Jalen Green are out for Houston which should result in a boost for Sengun including as a distributor. He’s averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute and should play close to 35 minutes tonight. Additionally, Sengun has flashed 50+ fantasy point upside multiple times this season and that type of upside at his price is hard to ignore.
- Terrence Ross is cheap, can score, and is projected to play over 20 minutes. Additionally, Phoenix gets a solid matchup versus the Thunder and Shai may potentially sit. The Suns traded Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges to the Nets in exchange for Durant, however, KD is still recovering from injury. Landry Shamet remains out, and Cam Payne is questionable. All of this leads to a potential path for Ross to be a strong punt play tonight and a great pivot off of chalk Josh Christopher.
- Jae’Sean Tate is another Houston Rocket that will be popular tonight. While his price is low, his median and minutes projection is pretty underwhelming. Normally in these injury scenarios the cheaper players are the harder fades and the pricier guys have more pivots, however, Houston is sort of the opposite. If deciding who to roster between Sengun and Tate, Sengun at C makes for the better play as there are many options at F/G.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jordan Poole
Anthony Edwards
Jae'Sean Tate
Kyle Anderson
Alperen Sengun
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Chris Paul, Trae Young, Jalen Brunson
SG: Josh Giddey, Devin Booker, Klay Thompson
SF: Terrence Ross, Kawhi Leonard, Zach Lavine
PF: Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Giannis (if he plays)
C: Bam Adebayo, Nikola Vucevic, Clint Capela
DFS Popular Player: Alperen Sengun
Price: $7,500/7,500
Own%: 54.42%/62.70%
DFS Value Player: Terrence Ross
Price: $3,600/3,500
5x%: 66.00%/66.60
Player to Avoid in DFS: Jae'Sean Tate
Price: $4,100/4,400
LevX: -19.05/-34.56
NBA DFS final thoughts
Based on the projected chalk, tonight is going to have a lot of balanced lineups. That said, none of these chalk options are locks by any means. Every popular play tonight has multiple pivots at lower ownership. Thus, it’s a good slate for GPPs. Due to the balanced roster construction, essentially every player above $9k is projected to be under 15% owned. This is a huge leverage spot to attack by banking on both the upside of these players as well as the naturally different lineup construction. Good luck tonight!
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