Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Killian Hayes should be back in the starting lineup as Jaden Ivey has been ruled out. Hayes sees an uptick in usage with Ivey and Cunningham off the floor. Additionally, Bogdanovic is also out, further thinning the rotation. Hayes has a decent assist rate with all these guys out which helps boost his floor as he won’t be solely scoring dependent. All that said, Hayes will be extremely popular on tonight’s short slate.
- Alec Burks stands to benefit for all of the same reasons as Hayes, he just also happens to be a better player both in DFS and real life. On Draftkings in particular Burks is egregiously underpriced at $3.5k. He’s just over a fantasy point per minute producer and should see between 28-32 minutes tonight which would crush value. While not as insane a value on Fanduel he’s still a strong play considering you have to play two SGs.
- LaMelo Ball is looking like the most popular spend up tonight, however, there are several viable pivots on the high end. Tatum and Randle going against each other will both be lower owned, and Tatum will be needed to step up with no Jaylen Brown. Additionally, all 3 of Jimmy Butler, James Harden, and Embiid have comparable ceilings.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Killian Hayes
Alec Burks
Brandon Ingram
Gordon Hayward
Marvin Bagley
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jalen Brunson, Malcolm Brogdon, CJ McCollum
SG: James Harden, Tyler Herro, Derrick White
SF: Tobias Harris, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III
PF: Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Jayson Tatum
C: Bam Adebayo, Joel Embiid, Mitchell Robinson
DFS Popular Player: Killian Hayes
Price: $4,600/5,400
Own%: -/-
DFS Value Player: Alec Burks
Price: $3,500/5,000
5x%: -/-
Player to Avoid in DFS: LaMelo Ball
Price: $10,300/10,300
LevX: -/-
NBA DFS final thoughts
Only 4 games tonight which is likely going to result in heavily concentrated ownership. Thus far it looks to be centered on Pistons/Hornets and to a lesser extent Magic/Pelicans. This leaves Heat/Sixers and Celtics/Knicks with lower exposure by the field. Both of these games are solid leverage points as they have a couple of MVP candidates, and “should” be competitive games between teams with postseason aspirations. Good luck!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.