Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Kris Dunn is likely going to be the highest owned player in DFS tonight. Mike Conley was traded and Sexton and Clarkson will both be out. Dunn played 23 minutes off the bench in Utah’s last game and that was with Clarkson playing over 30 minutes. Dunn is just flat out underpriced on both sites. Even if he doesn’t start, Dunn still should play over 25 minutes easily which could see him crush value. No need to get cute here.
- Malik Beasley is another strong value option tonight. Lebron is out for multiple weeks and D’Angelo Russell is doubtful. This should lead to a significant bump in usage and if there’s one thing Beasley can do it’s score. Additionally, he’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute over the past month and is currently projected to play over 30 minutes versus the Grizzlies.
- Kyle Kuzma should continue to play massive minutes with Porzingis out. However, despite playing over 38 minutes in the Wizards last game Kuzma absolutely killed lineups shooting an abysmal 4-18 from the field. The good news is that even with awful performance Kuzma is still averaging around 1.1 FPPM on the season. The bad news is he’s going to be pretty high owned, volatile, and has viable pivots in his price range.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Kris Dunn
Malik Beasley
Luguentz Dort
Daniel Gafford
Dennis Schroder
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Ja Morant, Trae Young, Delon Wright
SG: Josh Giddey, Austin Reaves, Jalen Green
SF: Deni Avdija, Cam Reddish, Kawhi Leonard
PF: Lauri Markkanen, Giannis, Jeremy Sochan
C: Jokic, Walker Kessler, Kevon Looney
DFS Popular Player: Kris Dunn
Price: $3,600/4,500
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Player: Malik Beasley
Price: $4,500/5,200
5x%: 73.00%/51.10%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Kyle Kuzma
Price: $7,800/7,500
LevX: -13.89/-37.91
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight is likely going to be another stars and scrubs slate centered around Jazz and Lakers value. The direct leverage would be to target guy like AD, Markkanen, and Kessler. Similarly, Isaiah Joe and Josh Giddey would be the direct leverage off of Dort since Shai is still out. Additionally, you can get different at the spend up spots. Dame and AD look to be the two highest owned while everyone else is fairly spread out under 20%. If people are willing to chase Dame ceiling game and not Jokic that’s an easy thing to take advantage of. Good luck!
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