Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Myles Turner has been on quite the tear recently. Turner has posted 40+ Draftkings points in 3 straight contests, including a 60 point eruption against Boston in his first game after the all star break. Draftkings refuses to raise his price and he now finds himself in perhaps the best matchup in the NBA in the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs give the 2nd highest boost in fantasy production to opposing Centers and those numbers have likely not caught up yet to the Spurs going from Jakob Poeltl to Zach Collins. Expect Turner to be very popular tonight.
- Charles Bassey has been playing his way into potentially more minutes of late. Bassey is coming off a 28.5 Draftkings points performance in just 21 minutes. Will Collins fouling issues and a tough mtachup vs Turner, Bassey may see minutes in the 20s again tonight. Bassey is well over a 1.0 FPPM producer so at sub 4K and a potential for 20+ minutes he projects as a great value on tonight's slate.
- Buddy Hield keeps having sup par performances and his price just keeps dropping. This is the cheapest I have seen Hield all season and he gets a terrific matchup here against the leagues worse defense. However, Hield's cheap price tag is attracting a lot of ownership. This is a potential get right spot for Hield, but he has been slumping lately and offers very little in terms of fantasy production if his shot isn't falling. This is a good spot to fade Hield and hope his struggles continue.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
James Harden
Buddy Hield
Jeremy Sochan
Doug McDermott
Myles Turner
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Luka, Ty Jerome, FVV
SG: Corey Kispert, Norman Powell, THJ
SF: Jordan Nwora, Deni Avdija, Gary Trent
PF: Reggie Bullock, Maxi Kleber, Jalen Smith
C: Dwight Powell, Jakob Poeltl, Daniel Gafford
DFS Popular Player: Myles Turner
Price: $7,400/8,600
Own%: 55.14%/41.96%
DFS Value Player: Charles Bassey
Price: $3,800/4,800
5x%: 63.00%/25.00%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Buddy Hield
Price: $5,600/$5,900
LevX: -53.29/-39.28
NBA DFS final thoughts
There will be a lot of ownership in the San Antonio vs Indiana game as their are tons of points expected to be scored. However, on just a 4 game slate you can gain quite a bit of leverage by betting more-so on that game not going nuclear and instead picking pieces in good spots from other games. This isn't to say that you should fully fade Pacers vs Spurs, but be cognizant of how many players you include in your lineups and what potential groups you could make in an effort to avoid negative correlation for ceiling outcomes and also gain leverage on your opponents. Good luck tonight!
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