Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Terry Rozier is once again going to be massively popular, but for good reason. With Ball out and PJ Washington not playing, Rozier has seen his usage rate soar above 30%. He’s going to play all the minutes he can handle and has the green light to shoot at will. That said, the Hornets are in tank mode, but they’re also up against another bottom tier team tonight in the Orlando Magic.
- Cole Anthony (DK)/Eric Gordon (FD). Anthony is another strong DFS play in the Magic/Hornets game. He’s been averaging over a fantasy point per minute over the past month and is projected to play around 25 minutes tonight. With that production he should be able to hit value at his $4.1k price tag. On Fanduel, Eric Gordon stands out as the top value play. The Clippers have already ruled out Kawhi, Powell, and Marcus Morris, and Zubac is questionable. This opens up both minutes and usage for Gordon. Additionally, he’s projected to play over 30 minutes currently which gives him a great chance to hit value at only $4.2k on FD.
- Guillermo Hernangomez is going to be heavy chalk on both DFS sites. The Pelicans were already somewhat thin and JVal is doubtful for tonight. However, even considering that, Hernangomez doesn’t project for a ton of minutes, nor is his median projection that much higher than similarly priced players. There are currently no less than 10 players with similar projections at lower ownership so this is a spot you can fade in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Terry Rozier
Cole Anthony/Eric Gordon
Kelly Oubre Jr./Luguentz Dort
Guillermo “Willy” Hernangomez
Kris Dunn
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jamal Murray, Ja Morant, De’Aaron Fox
SG: Devin Booker, KCP, Mikal Bridges
SF: Harrison Barnes, Cam Reddish, Cam Johnson
PF: Jayson Tatum, Keegan Murray, Saddiq Bey
C: Deandre Ayton, Walker Kessler, Mitchell Robinson
DFS Popular Player: Terry Rozier
Price: $7,700/7,800
Own%: 42.53%/55.21%
DFS Value Player: Cole Anthony/Eric Gordon
Price: $4,100/4,200
5x%: 77.00%/75.00%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Guilermo Hernangomez
Price: $4,300/$4,600
LevX: -18.02.29/-53.67
NBA DFS final thoughts
Thankfully no one team should dominate the chalk positions tonight as the popular players tonight are coming from various teams. AD, Jokic, and Lillard will be the most popular spend ups with each projected for around 25%. This is leaving all of the other high dollar high upside options under owned so that is something we can take advantage of. Tonight is a good night for GPPs as nearly every popular player has a multitude of lower owned pivots available. Good luck tonight!
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