Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Devonte Graham is likely in line for another start tonight for the Spurs in the most fantasy friendly matchup for PGs in the NBA. The Spurs are without Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Malakli Branham tonight and Tre Jones is just in his 2nd game back from injury. Graham played 32 minutes and put up 35 Draftkings points in a start against Indiana 2 days ago. Graham remains far too cheap for his current role and will be very popular tonight.
- Despite the Rockets getting mostly healthy, the departure of Eric Gordon seems to have cemented a spot in the rotation for Tari Eason. Eason is very effective in his minutes, averaging more than 1 FPPM on the season. Eason has scored 37.5, 37, and 29 Draftkings points in his last 3 games. Despite elevated minutes in those games, Eason can still crush his $4,300 price tag in slightly lower minutes, making him a great value play on tonight's slate.
- Jeremy Sochan has been #balling recently and is coming off an absurd 47.8 Draftkings points performance against the Indiana Pacers. However, his stat line may be a bit inflated by his 13 rebounds and 2 steals, given the fact that he averages just 5 rebounds per game and less than 1 steal on the season. Sochan's ownership is likely to be inflated tonight as well following such a huge performance and stepping into potentially even more usage with the Spurs injury situation. This is likely not a spot to full fade, but rather consider going under the field on Sochan tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Devonte Graham
Hamidou Diallo
Jeremy Sochan
Tari Eason
Joel Embiid
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Cory Joseph, Gabe Vincent, Jevon Carter
SG: Isaac Okoro, Deanthony Melton, Gabe Vincent
SF: Taurean Prince, Saddiq Bey, Deandre Hunter
PF: Giannis, Caleb Martin, Marvin Bagley
C: Onyeka Okongwu, Charles Bassey, Brook Lopez
DFS Popular Player: Devonte Graham
Price: $4,500/5,100
Own%: 62.99%/70.00%
DFS Value Player: Tari Eason
Price: $4,300/5,900
5x%: 64.00%/16.00%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Jeremy Sochan
Price: $5,400/$6,100
LevX: -15.84/-34.96
NBA DFS final thoughts
This is the type of slate where the field seems to be expressing some overconfidence in value that is not all that much different from other plays at fractions of the ownership. Furthermore, the value that projects to be chalky is not really that cheap, creating a path where the field is likely to build much more balanced. This creates an opportunity for you to “flip the build” and instead pay for someone like Giannis who is likely to be under-owned given the somewhat gross value you have to play in order to fit him. Good luck tonight!
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