Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Jevon Carter is going to be one of the highest owned players in DFS tonight. The Bucks will be without Giannis and Jrue, and the backcourt wasn’t incredibly deep to begin with. Veteran PG Dragic is also out so the only other competition we may see is if Ingles gets some ball handling duties. Carter is cheap enough on both sites that he shouldn’t kill you even in the worst-case scenario at his projected ownership.
- Mo Wagner grades out as one of the top value options on both DK and FD. Wendell Carter Jr. has been ruled out for the Magic and Wagner should get the start. He played 33 minutes in the last game with no WCJ and easily hit value. Wagner is a strong FPPM producer in general so if he plays the 30 minutes he’s currently projected for he should once again cruise to hitting value.
- Marvin Bagley fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Bagley will once again be popular as essentially the entire frontcourt is out again for the Pistons, however, we saw what his floor can be. With his combination of ownership and price he can be avoided in GPPs. If you choose to fade you are accepting the risk that he can also smash value and bury you. True boom-or-bust play.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jevon Carter
Tyus Jones
Immanuel Quickley
Marvin Bagley
Mo Wagner
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Kris Dunn, Luka Doncic, Terry Rozier
SG: Bradley Beal, Jalen Green, Mikal Bridges
SF: Josh Hart, Klay Thompson, Cam Johnson
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Xavier Tillman, Paolo Banchero
C: Rudy Gobert, Mark Williams, Mitchell Robinson
DFS Popular Player: Jevon Carter
Price: $3,700/4,400
Own%: 53.29%/70.00%
DFS Value Player: Mo Wagner
Price: $3,900/4,400
5x%: 78%/72%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Marvin Bagley
Price: $5,500/$7,000
LevX: -32.16/-40.36
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Tonight is fairly straightforward in terms of roster construction. Memphis and Milwaukee players will likely fill 4-5 roster spots in most lineups with popular spend ups in Embiid and Anthony Davis. This provides two high-level paths to getting different. Either play the direct leverage in guys like Xavier Tillman, Brook Lopez, James Harden, and Paolo Banchero, or find similarly priced pivots. Granted, the latter is a bit more difficult tonight as Tyus Jones and Anthony Davis have no comparable pivot. Those might be 2 to start with and then build from there. Good luck tonight!
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