Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- The Thunder appear to be entering full tank mode and are now shutting down SGA on back to backs. With this being the second leg of a back to back for OKC, SGA has been ruled out. In addition to that, rookie sensation Jalen Williams is also out for this game with a wrist injury. This opens up a lot of opportunities for the Thunder players here to see increased minutes and usage. Aaron Wiggins will likely draw the start once again for Jalen Williams and see into the mid 30s in minutes. At just $3,500 this is going to make Wiggins one of the most popular plays on the slate.
- Dallas is on the back end of a back to back here and thus both Maxi Kleber and Reggie Bullock have been ruled out. I would expect Justin Holiday to start in Bullock's place tonight. Holiday is coming off a 27 Draftkings points performance in 31 minutes and is poised for an even bigger role tonight. At basically the stone minimum, Holiday is a great value play tonight.
- Another big beneficiary of OKC's shenanigans is Isaiah Joe. Joe has shown quite the ceiling in the past with SGA out of the lineup and now Jalen Williams also being out should only add to it. However, Joe is extremely reliant on his shot falling in order to accumulate fantasy points and Phoenix has been an elite defense as of late. Joe has shown his ceiling with multiple 28+ point fantasy games in SGA's absence, but he has also produced quite a few snowflake in there as well. Joe is not a full fade due to the his ceiling, but he is someone you should consider coming in underweight on when he is chalky like he is tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Trae Young
Aaron Wiggins
Isaiah Joe
Cam Reddish
Christian Wood
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Dame, Luka, Jamal Murray
SG: Donovan Mitchell, Derrick White, Bogdan
SF: Saddiq Bey, Kawhi Leonard, Zach Lavine
PF: Kristaps, Aaron Gordon, Evan Mobley
C: Jokic, Deandre Ayton, Jonas Val
DFS Popular Player: Aaron Wiggins
Price: $3,500/5,300
Own%: 58.14%/
DFS Value Player: Justin Holiday
Price: $3,200/4,100
5x%: 57%/
Player to Avoid in DFS: Isaiah Joe
Price: $4,400/$4,400
LevX: -18.82/
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
This is a relatively short slate in my opinion. There is an unusual lack of injury news and therefore value on tonight's slate (at the time of writing this). This is going to funnel people into building more balanced lineups and the slate breaker's are going to be under-owned. I would prioritize jamming in a minimum of at least 1 of Jokic, Dame, Luka, and Donavon Mitchell into all of my lineups and fill in the rest using the somewhat disgusting OKC, Portland, or Dallas chalk. Good luck tonight!
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