Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Desmond Bane is coming off a bad game vs the Lakers but is in a great bounce back spot here against the Warriors without Ja Morant. Bane put up 47.5 Draftkings points in his first game without Morant before a subpar game last time out. Bane has a 28.2% usage rate with Ja Morant off the floor this season and the past 2 games Bane has been playing backup PG so his assist numbers are up quite a bit. He is underpriced for his role without Morant, and in a plus matchup tonight expect Bane to be very popular tonight.
- The Linsanity run for Cam Thomas has a chance to continue tonight with the Nets missing 3 starters. We all know what Thomas can do, posting 3 straight 57+ Draftkings points games will leave a lasting impression. Thomas has been out of the rotation recently but with the Nets down so many bodies he should get plenty of run tonight. At just $4,600 on Draftkings this makes Thomas the best value play on the slate.
- Jalen Green is in line for huge usage here without backcourt mate Kevin Porter Jr against Indiana tonight. The pacers are a great matchup on paper but there are a few reasons you may want to avoid Green tonight. Despite the good matchup, the Rockets are 10 point underdogs on the road tonight, introducing some blowout potential and shortened minutes for Green. However this isn't something we can count on, so let's instead discuss how Green scores fantasy points. Green offers very little outside of scoring actual points and he is one of the streakiest players in the league. Green is going to be very chalky tonight and likely isn't a full fade, but is someone I would happily come in under the field on.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jalen Green
Desmond Bane
Jrue Holiday
Khris Middleton
Day'Ron Sharpe
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Steph Curry, De'Aaaron Fox, Kris Dunn
SG: Josh Hart, Kevin Huerter, Jordan Poole
SF: Keegan Murray, Buddy Hield, KJ Martin
PF: Julius Randle, Kelly Olynyk, Trey Lyles
C: Sabonis, Walker Kessler, Kevon Looney
DFS Popular Player: Desmond Bane
Price: $8,000/$8,600
Own%: 46.56%/45.04%
DFS Value Player: Cam Thomas
Price: $4,600/4,700
5x%: 65%/52%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Jalen Green
Price: $6,400/$6,800
LevX: -16.95/-17.09
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
This is back to back slates where balanced builds will likely be preferred by the field. My favorite thing to do for leverage in NBA DFS is “flip the build”. Tonight this would mean going more stars and scrubs, avoiding the popular mid range guys like Jrue Holiday, Jalen Green, and Khris Middleton and instead paying up for the likes of De'Aaron Fox, Julius Randle, Domas, or an unowned Steph Curry. Once again the highest ceiling players on the slate are going overlooked, and in a big way tonight. Good luck!
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