Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Value is super tight tonight, meaning some gross value is gonna be chalky. Reggie Jackson has been fine recently, he seems to have carved out a solid 20+ minutes in this Denver rotation. However, Jackson hasn't surpassed 25 Draftkings points since joining Denver, and he likely does not warrant the 50+% ownership that he's going to get tonight. The matchup is great, and he's super cheap so I understand the popularity, but it seems like a little much to me.
- Aaron Gordon is unusually cheap here in the best matchup in the league against the Spurs. Despite some potential blowout concern, Gordon can still pay off in limited minutes. If the game does stay close, he has quite a bit of upside at just $6,400 on Draftkings. With 33.8 and 40 Draftkings points in his last 2 games, Gordon is a nice value on tonight's tough slate.
- Royce O'Neale is remarkably nearing 50% projected ownership on Draftkings despite scoring less than 25 Draftkings points in 12 straight games before his last. O'Neale had a ceiling outcome against Houston last game with 11 rebounds and there seems to be some serious recency bias going on here. O'Neale's role is marginal on this Nets team so despite the cheap price and decent minutes projected I would try to come in under the field here.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Reggie Jackson
Royce O'Neale
Mikal Bridges
Jaden McDaniels
Rudy Gobert
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Dame, James Harden, Trae Young
SG: Donovan Mitchell, Bogdan, Anthony Edwards
SF: Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin, Troy Brown Jr.
PF: Jeremy Sochan, Kevin Love, Evan Mobley
C: Jokic, Embiid, Anthony Davis
DFS Popular Player: Reggie Jackson
Price: $3,500/$4,300
Own%: 56.55%/41.51%
DFS Value Player: Aaron Gordon
Price: $6,400/$7,200
5x%: 48%/23%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Royce O'Neale
Price: $3,800/$4,500
LevX: -31.67/-34.71
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
This slate is about as gross as it gets. Much of the leverage is going to come more so in avoiding the bad chalk that is going to be consumed by a majority of the field. Balanced builds are likely the way to go tonight in an effort to avoid jamming the Reggie Jackson and Royce O'Neales of the world. This could change if Darius Garland is ruled out, and if the value that opens up is good enough it could present an opportunity to play some low owned stars. However if that doesn't happen, balance is likely to be rewarded here. Good luck tonight!
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