Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With Jarrett Allen already ruled out, and then a surprise downgrade for Donavon Mitchell to out, Evan Mobley is in line for a huge role here. In 516 minutes with Jarrett Allen and Donavon Mitchell off the floor, Mobley has received a 4.3% usage bump that amounts to 24.9% total usage, 2nd on the team behind only Darius Garland. Expect Mobley to be extremely popular tonight.
- The Pistons are in full tank mode. If Cory Joseph is ruled out they will have 8 active players… Eugene Omoruyi will start again here with Marvin Bagley sidelined. Omoruyi crushed last game, putting up 34 Draftkings points in his first start of the season just yesterday. His price hasn't budged at all, and he is likely to see 32+ minutes again even if this game does blowout. Omoruyi is a great value play tonight.
- On paper the biggest beneficiary with Donavon Mitchell out for the Cavs tonight is Caris Levert. Levert is in line to start, and last time he played without Mitchell he put up 31.8 Draftkings points vs Detroit, and that was without Jarrett Allen. However, Levert is a very up and down player, and he has layed a dud in the spot plenty of times before. Not a full fade here with a very apparent ceiling, but I would try to come in under the field here on a chalky Levert and hope for a bad shooting night.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Darius Garland
Caris Levert
Deni Avdija
Eugene Omoruyi
Evan Mobley
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Dame, SGA, Devin Booker
SG: Terrence Ross, Josh Giddey, Josh Hart
SF: Michael Porter Jr., Kelly Oubre, Joe Ingles
PF: Giannis, Jeremy Sochan, Jalen Williams
C: Jokic, AD, Poeltl
DFS Popular Player: Evan Mobley
Price: $8,100/$8,200
Own%: 54.78%/70.00%
DFS Value Player: Eugene Omoruyi
Price: $3,800/$5,000
5x%: 59%/31%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Caris Levert
Price: $5,000/$6,000
LevX: -18.58/-30.07
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
There is virtually 0 ownership coming in on the likes of Jokic, Lillard, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, and Giannis. The field is going to flock to balanced builds in a big way here with mid priced players in good spots due to teammate injuries. This slate screams stars and scrubs to me for GPPs, with solid cheap chalk going under owned and the highest ceiling players on the slate getting virtually unowned. Good luck tonight!
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