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Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat 03.13.2023

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

  • We have a repeat of the tank bowl tonight between the Pistons and Pacers. Everyone on the Pistons of relevance is out and the same can be said for the Pacers aside from a Q tag on Buddy Hield. In DFS this means a whole lotta value! Let's start with Killian Hayes, who absolutely smashed in this same exact scenario just 2 days ago. Hayes put up 49 Draftkings points in a massive role, finishing with a real life stat line of 17-6-13. Nothing has changed, so expect Hayes to be massive chalk tonight.
  • On the other side of the game we have Isaiah Jackson drawing another start for injured Myles Turner. Jackson also smashed just 2 days ago in this same matchup, putting up a 19-11 stat line that amounted to 43.8 Draftkings points. Jackson hasn't been priced up nearly enough and therefore projects to be a great value play tonight.
  • Back to the Pistons. Like I said, basically their whole team is out. Isaiah Livers took this opportunity to chuck up 20 shots in a team high 38 minutes last time out. Livers finished with 39.5 Draftkings points at $4,700, which is solid. However, Livers is now $5,300 and that really isn't that cheap all things considered. Livers fantasy value was also uncharacteristically bolstered by 4 steals and 2 blocks last game, and we shouldn't count on that going forward. It's nearly impossible to just completely X out Livers tonight, but I would try to come in under the field.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details:

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Andrew Nembhard

Killian Hayes

Chris Duarte

Jayson Tatum

Isaiah Jackson


This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Steph Curry, Trae Young, Kyrie (if he plays)

SG: Terrence Ross, Malik Monk, Ochae Agbaji

SF: Lauri, Kevin Huerter, Bogdan

PF: Giannis, Jalen Smith, James Johnson

C: Sabonis, Walker Kessler, Kevon Looney

DFS Popular Player: Killian Hayes

Price: $5,700/$6,400
Own%: 70.00%/63.93%

DFS Value Player: Isaiah Jackson

Price: $4,600/$4,600
5x%: 59%/59%

Player to Avoid in DFS: Isaiah Livers

Price: $5,300/$4,900
LevX: -29.12/-48.50

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Nothing says March NBA DFS like the top 6 pOWN players all being from the Pistons vs Pacers game… In all seriousness this many people being out for both of those teams has opened up tremendous amounts of value. It is extremely important in situations like this to be very cognizant of how the players within your lineups correlate.

For example, even at their cheap prices it is less likely for both Isaiah Livers and Eugene Omoruyi to put up GPP winning scores as they are likely to eat into each-other's ceilings given their roles on the team. Instead of just blindly jamming all the crazy value, get a leg up on your opponents by being cognizant of how each player accumulates points and create rules/groups accordingly. Good luck tonight!

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