Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- We have a repeat of the tank bowl tonight between the Pistons and Pacers. Everyone on the Pistons of relevance is out and the same can be said for the Pacers aside from a Q tag on Buddy Hield. In DFS this means a whole lotta value! Let's start with Killian Hayes, who absolutely smashed in this same exact scenario just 2 days ago. Hayes put up 49 Draftkings points in a massive role, finishing with a real life stat line of 17-6-13. Nothing has changed, so expect Hayes to be massive chalk tonight.
- On the other side of the game we have Isaiah Jackson drawing another start for injured Myles Turner. Jackson also smashed just 2 days ago in this same matchup, putting up a 19-11 stat line that amounted to 43.8 Draftkings points. Jackson hasn't been priced up nearly enough and therefore projects to be a great value play tonight.
- Back to the Pistons. Like I said, basically their whole team is out. Isaiah Livers took this opportunity to chuck up 20 shots in a team high 38 minutes last time out. Livers finished with 39.5 Draftkings points at $4,700, which is solid. However, Livers is now $5,300 and that really isn't that cheap all things considered. Livers fantasy value was also uncharacteristically bolstered by 4 steals and 2 blocks last game, and we shouldn't count on that going forward. It's nearly impossible to just completely X out Livers tonight, but I would try to come in under the field.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Andrew Nembhard
Killian Hayes
Chris Duarte
Jayson Tatum
Isaiah Jackson
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Steph Curry, Trae Young, Kyrie (if he plays)
SG: Terrence Ross, Malik Monk, Ochae Agbaji
SF: Lauri, Kevin Huerter, Bogdan
PF: Giannis, Jalen Smith, James Johnson
C: Sabonis, Walker Kessler, Kevon Looney
DFS Popular Player: Killian Hayes
Price: $5,700/$6,400
Own%: 70.00%/63.93%
DFS Value Player: Isaiah Jackson
Price: $4,600/$4,600
5x%: 59%/59%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Isaiah Livers
Price: $5,300/$4,900
LevX: -29.12/-48.50
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Nothing says March NBA DFS like the top 6 pOWN players all being from the Pistons vs Pacers game… In all seriousness this many people being out for both of those teams has opened up tremendous amounts of value. It is extremely important in situations like this to be very cognizant of how the players within your lineups correlate.
For example, even at their cheap prices it is less likely for both Isaiah Livers and Eugene Omoruyi to put up GPP winning scores as they are likely to eat into each-other's ceilings given their roles on the team. Instead of just blindly jamming all the crazy value, get a leg up on your opponents by being cognizant of how each player accumulates points and create rules/groups accordingly. Good luck tonight!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.