Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With Luka Doncic ruled out and Kyrie Irving unlikely to play, Jaden Hardy is in line for another huge usage game. Hardy has boasted above a 30% usage rate in back to back games now with Kyrie/Luka sidelined. Hardy has scored 31 and 47.5 Draftkings points in those games and now gets perhaps the best matchup in the league vs San Antonio. Expect Hardy to be massive chalk tonight.
- I'll be honest I'm not entirely sure who Sandro Mamukelashvili is, but the field is going to be playing a whole lot of him tonight for a reason. The Spurs are without both Zach Collins and Charles Bassey tonight so Mamukelashvili is expected to draw the start. At nearly minimum price on both sites, with a projection of about 25 minutes, Mamukelashvili projects to be a great value play on tonight's slate.
- D'Angelo Russell is going to command some massive ownership tonight with both Anthony Davis and Lebron James sidelined. Not only is he stepping into likely massive usage, but he faces the best matchup in the league for opposing guards in the Houston Rockets. However, Russell is a streaky player, and he's not super cheap. At 37+% projected ownership on a slate with several solid options, I would try to come in under the field on Russell tonight and hope that the Lakers offense remains more balanced than the field is assuming.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
D'Angelo Russell
Jaden Hardy
Tyler Herro
Darius Garland
Sandro Mamukelashvili
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: James Harden, Steph Curry, McKinley Wright
SG: Donavon Mitchell, Terrance Mann, Anthony Edwards
SF: Jayson Tatum, Jaden McDaniels, David Roddy
PF: Naz Reid, Jonathon Kuminga, Keegan Murray
C: Joel Embiid, Domantas Sabonis, JaMychal Green
DFS Popular Player: Jaden Hardy
Price: $5,500/$6,400
Own%: 70.00%/68.16%
DFS Value Player: Sandro Mamukelashvili
Price: $3,100/$3,900
5x%: 74%/53%
Player to Avoid in DFS: D'Angelo Russell
Price: $7,700/$8,200
LevX: -15.64/-14.26
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
There is a great opportunity tonight to get positional leverage on your opponents. There is a ton of ownership that is going to condense on Jaden Hardy, D'Angelo Russell, and Darius Garland. All three of these players are PG eligible, meaning the other PGs on the slate are going to be drastically under owned in comparison to these three. James Harden, Steph Curry, and Donavon Mitchell are all projected for single digit ownership tonight, and we know the ceiling's they can put up. I would prioritize taking advantage of this leverage opportunity and build my lineups starting from there. Good luck tonight!
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