Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Spencer Dinwiddie seems to have really found his role in Brooklyn. He's distributing like crazy, with 10+ assists in 3 straight games. He now gets a matchup with the league's best assist target and worst defense over the last 15 games in the Sacramento Kings. Dinwiddie has scored 50+ Draftkings points in 3 of his last 5 games without shooting all that well. If his shot starts to fall and he continues racking up assists he can crush this price tag. Expect Dinwiddie to be very popular tonight
- Trey Lyles is a 20 Draftkings points per game machine. Lyles has 20+ in 6 straight games, and 7 of the last 8 overall while never being priced about $4,100. He also has 24+ in 5 of his last 8 games. Given that he remains at $4,000 on a slate without a ton of value, and in a good game environment, Lyles should provide about 5x his salary with upside for more, making him a great value play tonight.
- Gary Trent Jr. is coming off an 18.8 Draftkings point game and is now somehow garnering 35% projected ownership, that's how gross this slate is. I've been preaching coming in under the field recently as opposed to completely avoiding the chalk, but Trent might be chalk that I would fully fade. Over his last 4 games he has averaged just 23.25 minutes per game and hasn't posted a single 20 point performance. Toronto is fully healthy here, so chalky Gary Trent makes no sense to me.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Spencer Dinwiddie
Seth Curry
Trey Lyles
Deandre Ayton
Nikola Jokic
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Haliburton (if he plays), Fox, Jrue Holiday
SG: Josh Giddey, Devin Booker, Joe Ingles
SF: Khris Middleton, Kevin Huerter, Jordan Nwora
PF: Giannis, Jalen Williams, Jeff Green
C: Jokic, Sabonis, Brook Lopez
DFS Popular Player: Spencer Dinwiddie
Price: $7,900/$8,700
Own%: 45.98%/33.92%
DFS Value Player: Trey Lyles
Price: $4,000/
5x%: 29%/
Player to Avoid in DFS: Gary Trent Jr.
Price: $4,300/$4,700
LevX: -30.16/-52.01
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
At the time of writing this there is virtually no value available on this slate. The biggest leverage will come from spending up for the stars due to how few people will be doing that. It gets pretty gross value wise when you do that, but you can gain additional leverage by simply avoiding the very apparent bad chalk on this slate. Gary Trent Jr, Dorian Finney Smith, Seth Curry, and Torrey Craig all project for 30% ownership tonight. However, the only reason they do is because you have to play someone. They don't project nearly well enough to warrant the ownership they are receiving. If you're going gross for value, go for gross without the ownership attached to it. Good luck tonight!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.