Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Desmond Bane continues to benefit from the ongoing Morant drama. He was hindered by a blowout in the Grizzlies last game, but assuming this game goes according to plan he should be back to playing over 30 minutes. Additionally, Bane gets a great matchup as the Spurs are absolutely dreadful. He will be massively popular but is a strong DFS play as far as median projection.
- Jeremy Sochan stands out in the low mid range as a decent value play tonight. The caveat here is that the value overall on this slate is pretty bad due to the efficient pricing. That said, Sochan should play 30 minutes and is averaging over a fantasy point per minute. He should have a relatively solid floor here compared to some of the other “value” options tonight.
- Xavier Tillman is another Memphis player projected to be heavy chalk. However, as of now there are no less than 10 comparable pivots at lower ownership. The play makes sense in cash games, but this is an ideal spot to fade in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Tyus Jones
Darius Garland
Desmond Bane
Evan Mobley
Xavier Tillman
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Kevin Porter Jr.
SG: Jalen Green, Derrick White, Dejounte Murray
SF: Kelly Oubre Jr., Jaden McDaniels, KJ Martin
PF: Herbert Jones, Jerami Grant, Jayson Tatum
C: Anthony Davis, Clint Capela, Rudy Gobert
DFS Popular Player: Desmond Bane
Price: $7,400/$8,400
Own%: 63.30%/37.65%
DFS Value Player: Jeremy Sochan
Price: $5,600/$6,300
5x%: 37%/23%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Xavier Tillman
Price: $5,200/$5,400
LevX: -24.76/-52.33
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Based on current ownership and optimizer builds 3 Grizzlies and 2 Cavs is going to be a popular starting point for DFS lineups tonight. Pretty much everyone on the Grizzlies is going to carry ownership so there’s not a ton of leverage. However, every one of those popular plays does have multiple pivots in their respective price range. As for Cleveland, the ownership is mostly on Garland/Mobley/Rubio which makes Donovan Mitchell an excellent leverage play in GPPs. Additionally, most of the spend up options are all going to be sub-20% so we can take advantage of these low-owned, high ceiling players. Good luck tonight!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.