Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Desmond Bane is in the exact same spot as last night, the only difference is the opponent. The Grizzlies go from being on the road versus Spurs to at home versus the Warriors. Bane should play over 30 minutes and has produced at a solid rate with no Morant. He will be massively popular but is a strong play as far as median projection/ceiling combo.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker grades out as a top DFS value play tonight for the Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards was injured yesterday and is currently questionable. However, given that he had to be helped off the court there’s a very high chance he sits the B2B. In his absence NAW played 27 minutes and currently projects for 28 minutes tonight. His price hasn’t really been adjusted by either site which makes him a hard fade.
- Tyus Jones will once again be popular tonight for the Grizzlies, however, he has a lower median projection than Bane which leads to more viable pivots off of Jones. Granted, he smashed last night but that was also against a tanking Spurs team in overtime.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Tyus Jones
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Desmond Bane
Jordan Nwora
Joel Embiid
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Coby White, Steph Curry, Malcolm Brogdon
SG: Tyler Herro, Talen Horton-Tucker, Bradley Beal
SF: Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield, Zach LaVine
PF: Keegan Murray, Kelly Olynyk, Scottie Barnes
C: Draymond Green, Walker Kessler, Jaren Jackson Jr.
DFS Popular Player: Desmond Bane
Price: $7,800/$8,100
Own%: 42.53%/56.03%
DFS Value Player: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Price: $3,600/$4,200
5x%: 60%/49%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Tyus Jones
Price: $6,900/$6,500
LevX: -15.29/-49.53
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Based on current ownership and optimizer builds 3 Grizzlies and 2 Wolves is going to be a popular starting point for DFS lineups tonight. Pretty much everyone on the Grizzlies is going to carry ownership so there’s not a ton of leverage, but JJJ and Brooks would be the two lowest owned. As for Minnesota, if Ant is out you probably just take the free square in NAW, however, Conley and Kyle Anderson will be lower owned than him and worth a look in GPPs. Lastly, the value tonight is a little cheaper than yesterday leading to more stars and scrubs builds. Thus, an alternative approach in GPPs would be to go with a more balanced build. Good luck tonight!
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