Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Simone Fontecchio is not the new special at Olive Garden. He is, in fact, one of the highest owned DFS plays on the slate tonight. The Italian rookie has seen his minutes increase steadily and is currently projected for over 25 minutes tonight. He’s currently $3.6k on Draftkings and $4.7k on Fanduel. With limited pivot options available this may be a plug and play spot.
- Kelly Olynyk averages around a fantasy point per minute and should play over 30 minutes tonight. Furthermore, the Jazz will be without Markkanen, Sexton, and Clarkson which shortens the rotation and opens up a ton of usage. Olynyk is priced in the $5k range on both sites and has 40-point upside. Due to these combination of factors he rates out as one of the stronger value plays on tonight’s slate.
- Terry Rozier will be high owned, isn’t particularly cheap, and is more volatile than people may realize. Additionally, the Hornets have absolutely zero incentive to actually win games at this point in the season. Granted, there is some opportunity here with Ball, Martin, and Williams all out but just play one of the cheaper Hornets and fade Rozier in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Terry Rozier
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Simone Fontecchio
Taurean Prince
Kelly Olynyk
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Brunson, Tyus Jones
SG: Ochai Agbaji, Klay Thompson, Zach LaVine
SF: Talen Horton-Tucker, Josh Hart, DeMar DeRozan
PF: Trey Lyles (if IN), Jaren Jackson Jr (if IN)., Julius Randle
C: Kevon Looney, Nikola Vucevic, Myles Turner
DFS Popular Player: Simone Fontecchio
Price: $3,600/$4,700
Own%: 40.64%/30.15%
DFS Value Player: Kelly Olynyk
Price: $5,700/$5,800
5x%: 34%/35%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Terry Rozier
Price: $7,900/$8,400
LevX: -28.19/-34.71
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Chalk Jazz and Hornets just feels gross but that’s late season NBA DFS for you. The wise move is probably to prioritize the value chalk over the mid-range chalk as that is usually harder to pivot off of. Additionally, there are some direct leverage opportunities off of some of the higher owned plays tonight in guys like Horton-Tucker, Dennis Smith Jr., Mike Conley, and Tyus Jones. While some of them may not be sub-10% owned, they still project for about half the ownership of some of their teammates. With the amount of value this is likely a double spend up slate so keep that in mind as it will likely be a popular construction. Good luck tonight!
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